Today / Turkey - 1. Lig / Umraniyespor vs Van Spor

Umraniyespor vs Van Spor Prediction— Turkey - 1. Lig

Matchday 36 ·Sunday, April 19, 2026, 13:00

Umraniyespor

PPG 1.65 · HOME

LAST 5

WDLWL

1 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Van Spor

PPG 1.06 · AWAY

LAST 5

WLWLL

// Model verdict

BTTS 59% chance

Model probability 50.9% vs bookmaker-implied 62.5%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.2%0-19.7%0-25.8%0-32.3%0-4+0.9%1 1-010.8%1-112.8%1-27.6%1-33.0%1-4+1.2%2 2-07.1%2-18.4%2-25.0%2-32.0%2-4+0.8%3 3-03.1%3-13.7%3-22.2%3-30.9%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-01.4%4+-11.6%4+-21.0%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 39.6% 44.4% 2.25 -10.9%

Draw 26.9% 29.4% 3.40 -8.5%

Away win 33.5% 35.7% 2.80 -6.2%

Over 2.5 45.7% 56.5% 1.77 -19.1%

Over 3.5 24.3% 33.9% 2.95 -28.3%

BTTS 50.9% 62.5% 1.60 -18.6%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 38 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 45%

O2.5 50%

BTTS 55%

Score Hit 50%

ROI -50.8%

Bet Hit 33%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 17%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-2

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob50.9%

H 40% / xG 1.3-1.2 / O2.5 46% / BTTS 51%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.8%

#2 1–0 10.8%

#3 0–1 9.7%

#4 2–1 8.4%

#5 0–0 8.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Umraniyespor1.3

Van Spor1.2

COMBINED 2.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 45.7% · O3.5 PROB 24.3%

Form & verdict PPG

UMRANIYESPOR · PPG 1.65

VAN SPOR · PPG 1.06

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

Chance this pick lands

59%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.65) > Away AVERAGE (1.06)

Win probability 1X2

Umraniyespor (H) 39.6%

ODDS 2.25 · IMPLIED 44.4% EV -10.9%

Draw 26.9%

ODDS 3.40 · IMPLIED 29.4% EV -8.5%

Van Spor (A) 33.5%

ODDS 2.80 · IMPLIED 35.7% EV -6.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Umraniyespor face Van Spor in Turkey - 1. Lig on Sunday, April 19, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Umraniyespor a 40% chance, the draw 27% and Van Spor 34%, so Umraniyespor are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Umraniyespor and 1.2 for Van Spor (2.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 46% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 51% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Umraniyespor are averaging 1.65 points per game versus 1.06 for Van Spor. This match finished 1-2.

Umraniyespor vs Van Spor Prediction— Turkey - 1. Lig

Match Preview & Prediction

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