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Manisa BB vs Serik Belediyes Prediction— Turkey - 1. Lig

Regular Season - 36 ·Sunday, April 19, 2026, 13:00

Manisa BB

PPG 1.76 · HOME

1 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

Serik Belediyes

PPG 1.18 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.6 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 69.6% vs bookmaker-implied 64.5% — a real, if thin, edge.

+7.9% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.7%0-13.1%0-21.8%0-30.7%0-4+0.2%1 1-06.8%1-17.7%1-24.3%1-31.6%1-4+0.6%2 2-08.3%2-19.4%2-25.3%2-32.0%2-4+0.7%3 3-06.8%3-17.7%3-24.4%3-31.7%3-4+0.6%4+ 4+-07.6%4+-18.6%4+-24.8%4+-31.8%4+-4+0.7%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 66.5% 62.5% 1.60 +6.4%

Draw 17.7% 26.3% 3.80 -32.7%

Away win 15.8% 21.1% 4.75 -24.9%

Over 2.5 69.6% 64.5% 1.55 +7.9%

Over 3.5 48.3% 42.6% 2.35 +13.5%

BTTS 62.0% 65.4% 1.53 -5.1%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 25 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 52%

O2.5 52%

BTTS 48%

Score Hit 48%

ROI -9.6%

Bet Hit 59%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 69%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-0

xG (home)2.5 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob62.0%

H 66% / xG 2.5-1.1 / O2.5 70% / BTTS 62%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–1 9.4%

#2 2–0 8.3%

#3 3–1 7.7%

#4 1–1 7.7%

#5 3–0 6.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Manisa BB2.5

Serik Belediyes1.1

COMBINED 3.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 69.6% · O3.5 PROB 48.3%

Form & verdict PPG

MANISA BB · PPG 1.76

SERIK BELEDIYES · PPG 1.18

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.76) > Away AVERAGE (1.18)

Win probability 1X2

Manisa BB (H) 66.5%

ODDS 1.60 · IMPLIED 62.5% EV +6.4%

Draw 17.7%

ODDS 3.80 · IMPLIED 26.3% EV -32.7%

Serik Belediyes (A) 15.8%

ODDS 4.75 · IMPLIED 21.1% EV -24.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Manisa BB face Serik Belediyes in Turkey - 1. Lig on Sunday, April 19, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Manisa BB a 67% chance, the draw 18% and Serik Belediyes 16%, so Manisa BB are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.5 for Manisa BB and 1.1 for Serik Belediyes (3.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-1. There is a 70% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 62% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Manisa BB are averaging 1.76 points per game versus 1.18 for Serik Belediyes. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +13.5%. This match finished 1-0.

Manisa BB vs Serik Belediyes Prediction— Turkey - 1. Lig

Match Preview & Prediction

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