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CD Arabe Unido vs Plaza Amador Prediction— Panama - Liga Panameña de Fútbol

Apertura - 1 ·Saturday, July 25, 2026, 01:30

CD Arabe Unido

PPG 1.75 · HOME

UPCOMING

Plaza Amador

PPG 2.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 52.2% vs bookmaker-implied 52.6%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-010.0%0-113.3%0-28.8%0-33.9%0-4+1.7%1 1-09.8%1-112.9%1-28.6%1-33.8%1-4+1.7%2 2-04.7%2-16.3%2-24.2%2-31.8%2-4+0.8%3 3-01.5%3-12.0%3-21.3%3-30.6%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-00.5%4+-10.6%4+-20.4%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 28.2% 26.3% 3.80 +4.3%

Draw 26.9% 31.3% 3.20 -8.3%

Away win 44.9% 51.5% 1.94 -12.9%

Over 2.5 50.0% 45.5% 2.20 +10.0%

Over 3.5 28.7% 25.0% 4.00 +8.9%

BTTS 52.2% 52.6% 1.90 -0.8%

Home O1.5 35.0% 27.8% 3.60 +26.0%

Away O1.5 41.9% 46.5% 2.15 -9.9%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 23%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.0 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob52.2%

A 45% / xG 1.0-1.3 / U2.5 50% / BTTS 52%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.9%

#2 0–0 10.0%

#3 0–1 13.3%

#4 0–2 8.8%

#5 1–2 8.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

CD Arabe Unido1.0

Plaza Amador1.3

COMBINED 2.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.0% · O3.5 PROB 28.7%

Form & verdict PPG

CD ARABE UNIDO · PPG 1.75

PLAZA AMADOR · PPG 2.00

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected

65%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap -0.36, combined xG 2.30 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

CD Arabe Unido (H) 28.2%

ODDS 3.80 · IMPLIED 26.3% EV +4.3%

Draw 26.9%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV -8.3%

Plaza Amador (A) 44.9%

ODDS 1.94 · IMPLIED 51.5% EV -12.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

CD Arabe Unido face Plaza Amador in Panama - Liga Panameña de Fútbol on Saturday, July 25, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives CD Arabe Unido a 28% chance, the draw 27% and Plaza Amador 45%, so Plaza Amador are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.0 for CD Arabe Unido and 1.3 for Plaza Amador (2.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 52% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, CD Arabe Unido are averaging 1.75 points per game versus 2.00 for Plaza Amador. The best value bet our model finds is HomeO15, with an expected value of +26.0%.

CD Arabe Unido vs Plaza Amador Prediction— Panama - Liga Panameña de Fútbol

Match Preview & Prediction

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