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Herrera vs Union Cocle Prediction— Panama - Liga Panameña de Fútbol

Apertura - 1 ·Sunday, July 26, 2026, 21:00

Herrera

PPG 0.62 · HOME

UPCOMING

Union Cocle

PPG 1.25 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-012.8%0-117.4%0-211.9%0-35.4%0-4+2.5%1 1-08.9%1-112.1%1-28.2%1-33.7%1-4+1.7%2 2-03.1%2-14.2%2-22.9%2-31.3%2-4+0.6%3 3-00.7%3-11.0%3-20.7%3-30.3%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-00.1%4+-10.2%4+-20.1%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 23.6% 22.0% 4.55 +4.4%

Draw 28.2% 30.3% 3.30 -4.2%

Away win 48.2% 56.5% 1.77 -14.7%

Over 2.5 43.6% 45.5% 2.20 -4.1%

Over 3.5 23.4% 23.8% 4.20 -1.0%

BTTS 48.5% 50.0% 2.00 -3.0%

Home O1.5 33.3% 23.1% 4.33 +44.2%

Away O1.5 41.9% 48.8% 2.05 -14.1%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

0 – 2 34%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)0.7 xG (away)1.4 BTTS prob48.5%

A 48% / xG 0.7-1.4 / U2.5 44% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–1 17.4%

#2 0–0 12.8%

#3 1–1 12.1%

#4 0–2 11.9%

#5 1–2 8.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Herrera0.7

Union Cocle1.4

COMBINED 2.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 43.6% · O3.5 PROB 23.4%

Form & verdict PPG

HERRERA · PPG 0.62

UNION COCLE · PPG 1.25

⚠ RISKY - Form concerns with home team | No clear value

65%

DANGER

xG gap -0.67 - moderate Away edge

Win probability 1X2

Herrera (H) 23.6%

ODDS 4.55 · IMPLIED 22.0% EV +4.4%

Draw 28.2%

ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV -4.2%

Union Cocle (A) 48.2%

ODDS 1.77 · IMPLIED 56.5% EV -14.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Herrera face Union Cocle in Panama - Liga Panameña de Fútbol on Sunday, July 26, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Herrera a 24% chance, the draw 28% and Union Cocle 48%, so Union Cocle are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.7 for Herrera and 1.4 for Union Cocle (2.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-1. There is a 44% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Herrera are averaging 0.62 points per game versus 1.25 for Union Cocle. The best value bet our model finds is HomeO15, with an expected value of +44.2%.

Herrera vs Union Cocle Prediction— Panama - Liga Panameña de Fútbol

Match Preview & Prediction

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