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Sporting San Miguelito vs Plaza Amador Prediction— Panama - Liga Panameña de Fútbol

Apertura - 2 ·Saturday, August 1, 2026, 23:15

Sporting San Miguelito

PPG 1.00 · HOME

UPCOMING

Plaza Amador

PPG 1.90 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 55.4% vs bookmaker-implied 55.6%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.6%0-110.7%0-28.6%0-34.6%0-4+2.6%1 1-07.3%1-111.8%1-29.5%1-35.1%1-4+2.9%2 2-04.1%2-16.5%2-25.2%2-32.8%2-4+1.6%3 3-01.5%3-12.4%3-21.9%3-31.0%3-4+0.6%4+ 4+-00.5%4+-10.8%4+-20.7%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 29.9% 26.7% 3.75 +7.3%

Draw 25.2% 30.8% 3.25 -10.9%

Away win 44.9% 51.5% 1.94 -12.9%

Over 2.5 53.4% 48.8% 2.05 +9.5%

Over 3.5 32.2% 27.0% 3.70 +19.1%

BTTS 55.4% 55.6% 1.80 -0.3%

Home O1.5 32.6% 29.4% 3.40 +10.8%

Away O1.5 48.0% 47.6% 2.10 +0.8%

League track record ↗

Based on 6 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 0%

O2.5 67%

BTTS 50%

Score Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 32%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.1 xG (away)1.6 BTTS prob55.4%

A 45% / xG 1.1-1.6 / O2.5 53% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.8%

#2 1–2 9.5%

#3 0–1 10.7%

#4 0–2 8.6%

#5 0–0 6.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Sporting San Miguelito1.1

Plaza Amador1.6

COMBINED 2.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.4% · O3.5 PROB 32.2%

Form & verdict PPG

SPORTING SAN MIGUELITO · PPG 1.00

PLAZA AMADOR · PPG 1.90

⚠ RISKY - Form concerns with home team

65%

DANGER

xG gap -0.50 - moderate Away edge

Win probability 1X2

Sporting San Miguelito (H) 29.9%

ODDS 3.75 · IMPLIED 26.7% EV +7.3%

Draw 25.2%

ODDS 3.25 · IMPLIED 30.8% EV -10.9%

Plaza Amador (A) 44.9%

ODDS 1.94 · IMPLIED 51.5% EV -12.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Sporting San Miguelito face Plaza Amador in Panama - Liga Panameña de Fútbol on Saturday, August 1, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Sporting San Miguelito a 30% chance, the draw 25% and Plaza Amador 45%, so Plaza Amador are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.1 for Sporting San Miguelito and 1.6 for Plaza Amador (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 53% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Sporting San Miguelito are averaging 1.00 points per game versus 1.90 for Plaza Amador. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +19.1%.

Sporting San Miguelito vs Plaza Amador Prediction— Panama - Liga Panameña de Fútbol

Match Preview & Prediction

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