Today / Panama - Liga Panameña de Fútbol / Deportivo Universitario vs San Francisco FC

Deportivo Universitario vs San Francisco FC Prediction— Panama - Liga Panameña de Fútbol

Apertura - 1 ·Sunday, July 26, 2026, 01:30

Deportivo Universitario

PPG 1.12 · HOME

UPCOMING

San Francisco FC

PPG 1.12 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 55.4% vs bookmaker-implied 51.3% — a real, if thin, edge.

+8.0% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.0%0-16.9%0-24.8%0-32.2%0-4+1.0%1 1-08.1%1-111.1%1-27.7%1-33.5%1-4+1.7%2 2-06.5%2-19.0%2-26.2%2-32.9%2-4+1.3%3 3-03.5%3-14.9%3-23.4%3-31.5%3-4+0.7%4+ 4+-02.0%4+-12.8%4+-21.9%4+-30.9%4+-4+0.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 46.4% 36.0% 2.78 +29.0%

Draw 25.4% 33.8% 2.96 -14.9%

Away win 28.2% 39.1% 2.56 -16.7%

Over 2.5 53.9% 41.7% 2.40 +29.4%

Over 3.5 34.4% 22.2% 4.50 +54.8%

BTTS 55.4% 51.3% 1.95 +8.0%

Home O1.5 53.5% 33.3% 3.00 +60.5%

Away O1.5 41.9% 35.7% 2.80 +17.3%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 39%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)1.4 BTTS prob55.4%

H 46% / xG 1.6-1.4 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.1%

#2 2–1 9.0%

#3 1–2 7.7%

#4 0–0 5.0%

#5 2–0 6.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Deportivo Universitario1.6

San Francisco FC1.4

COMBINED 3.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.9% · O3.5 PROB 34.4%

Form & verdict PPG

DEPORTIVO UNIVERSITARIO · PPG 1.12

SAN FRANCISCO FC · PPG 1.12

✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity

70%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.24 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Deportivo Universitario (H) 46.4%

ODDS 2.78 · IMPLIED 36.0% EV +29.0%

Draw 25.4%

ODDS 2.96 · IMPLIED 33.8% EV -14.9%

San Francisco FC (A) 28.2%

ODDS 2.56 · IMPLIED 39.1% EV -16.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Deportivo Universitario face San Francisco FC in Panama - Liga Panameña de Fútbol on Sunday, July 26, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Deportivo Universitario a 46% chance, the draw 25% and San Francisco FC 28%, so Deportivo Universitario are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Deportivo Universitario and 1.4 for San Francisco FC (3.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Deportivo Universitario are averaging 1.12 points per game versus 1.12 for San Francisco FC. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +63.3%.

Deportivo Universitario vs San Francisco FC Prediction— Panama - Liga Panameña de Fútbol

Match Preview & Prediction

More Panama - Liga Panameña de Fútbol Predictions