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Istanbulspor vs Sariyer Prediction— Turkey - 1. Lig

Regular Season - 36 ·Sunday, April 19, 2026, 13:00

Istanbulspor

PPG 1.12 · HOME

3 – 1

FULL TIME

Sariyer

PPG 0.94 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.7%0-110.2%0-26.0%0-32.3%0-4+0.9%1 1-011.0%1-112.9%1-27.6%1-33.0%1-4+1.1%2 2-07.0%2-18.2%2-24.8%2-31.9%2-4+0.7%3 3-03.0%3-13.5%3-22.0%3-30.8%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-01.2%4+-11.5%4+-20.9%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 38.7% 37.7% 2.65 +2.5%

Draw 27.3% 31.3% 3.20 -12.6%

Away win 34.0% 40.8% 2.45 -16.7%

Over 2.5 44.2% 51.3% 1.95 -13.8%

Over 3.5 23.0% 29.0% 3.45 -20.6%

BTTS 49.7% 58.8% 1.70 -15.5%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 25 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 52%

O2.5 52%

BTTS 48%

Score Hit 48%

ROI -9.6%

Bet Hit 59%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 0 15%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-1

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob49.7%

H 39% / xG 1.3-1.2 / O2.5 44% / NoBTTS 50%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.9%

#2 1–0 11.0%

#3 0–1 10.2%

#4 0–0 8.7%

#5 2–1 8.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Istanbulspor1.3

Sariyer1.2

COMBINED 2.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 44.2% · O3.5 PROB 23.0%

Form & verdict PPG

ISTANBULSPOR · PPG 1.12

SARIYER · PPG 0.94

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.12), Away POOR (0.94)

Win probability 1X2

Istanbulspor (H) 38.7%

ODDS 2.65 · IMPLIED 37.7% EV +2.5%

Draw 27.3%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV -12.6%

Sariyer (A) 34.0%

ODDS 2.45 · IMPLIED 40.8% EV -16.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Istanbulspor face Sariyer in Turkey - 1. Lig on Sunday, April 19, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Istanbulspor a 39% chance, the draw 27% and Sariyer 34%, so Istanbulspor are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Istanbulspor and 1.2 for Sariyer (2.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 44% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 50% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Istanbulspor are averaging 1.12 points per game versus 0.94 for Sariyer. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +2.5%. This match finished 3-1.

Istanbulspor vs Sariyer Prediction— Turkey - 1. Lig

Match Preview & Prediction

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