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Coal India vs Aryan Prediction— India - Calcutta Premier Division

Regular season ·Tuesday, July 21, 2026, 09:30

Coal India

PPG 0.01 · HOME

UPCOMING

Aryan

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Caution: Away form (1.00) strong but model favors Home (P=67.9%)

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-015.3%0-13.9%0-20.5%0-30.0%0-4+0.0%1 1-024.8%1-16.3%1-20.8%1-30.1%1-4+0.0%2 2-020.2%2-15.1%2-20.7%2-30.1%2-4+0.0%3 3-010.9%3-12.8%3-20.4%3-30.0%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-06.4%4+-11.6%4+-20.2%4+-30.0%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 67.9% — — —

Draw 22.6% — — —

Away win 9.5% — — —

Over 2.5 39.6% — — —

Over 3.5 19.8% — — —

BTTS 28.6% — — —

Home O1.5 53.9% — — —

Away O1.5 11.1% — — —

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 65%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)0.3 BTTS prob28.6%

H 68% / xG 1.6-0.3 / U2.5 40% / NoBTTS 29%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 24.8%

#2 2–0 20.2%

#3 0–0 15.3%

#4 3–0 10.9%

#5 1–1 6.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Coal India1.6

Aryan0.3

COMBINED 1.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 39.6% · O3.5 PROB 19.8%

Form & verdict PPG

COAL INDIA · PPG 0.01

ARYAN · PPG 1.00

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ⚠ MIXED SIGNALS - Model favors home but form suggests away strength ...

48%

CAUTION_HOME

Caution: Away form (1.00) strong but model favors Home (P=67.9%)

Win probability 1X2

Coal India (H) 67.9%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 22.6%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Aryan (A) 9.5%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Coal India face Aryan in India - Calcutta Premier Division on Tuesday, July 21, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Coal India a 68% chance, the draw 23% and Aryan 10%, so Coal India are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Coal India and 0.3 for Aryan (1.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 40% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 29% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Coal India are averaging 0.01 points per game versus 1.00 for Aryan.