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3 de Noviembre vs Sportivo Carapeguá Prediction— Paraguay - Division Intermedia

Matchday 17 ·Monday, August 3, 2026, 20:00

3 de Noviembre

PPG 0.75 · HOME

UPCOMING

Sportivo Carapeguá

PPG 0.75 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.0 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 62.6% vs bookmaker-implied 50.0% — a clear edge.

+25.2% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.0%0-17.2%0-25.3%0-32.5%0-4+1.3%1 1-07.7%1-111.2%1-28.1%1-33.9%1-4+2.0%2 2-05.9%2-18.7%2-26.3%2-33.1%2-4+1.5%3 3-03.1%3-14.5%3-23.2%3-31.6%3-4+0.8%4+ 4+-01.7%4+-12.4%4+-21.8%4+-30.9%4+-4+0.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 41.0% 38.5% 2.60 +6.6%

Draw 24.5% 31.3% 3.20 -13.0%

Away win 34.5% 41.7% 2.40 -17.2%

Over 2.5 62.6% 50.0% 2.00 +25.2%

Over 3.5 39.7% 29.9% 3.34 +32.6%

BTTS 62.1% 58.5% 1.71 +6.2%

Home O1.5 45.4% 39.8% 2.51 +14.0%

Away O1.5 45.4% 42.0% 2.38 +8.1%

League track record ↗

Based on 12 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 42%

O2.5 25%

BTTS 50%

Score Hit 83%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 50%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)1.5 BTTS prob62.1%

H 41% / xG 1.5-1.5 / O2.5 63% / BTTS 62%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.2%

#2 2–1 8.7%

#3 1–2 8.1%

#4 0–0 5.0%

#5 2–2 6.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

3 de Noviembre1.5

Sportivo Carapeguá1.5

COMBINED 3.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 62.6% · O3.5 PROB 39.7%

Form & verdict PPG

3 DE NOVIEMBRE · PPG 0.75

SPORTIVO CARAPEGUÁ · PPG 0.75

✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity

70%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.09 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

3 de Noviembre (H) 41.0%

ODDS 2.60 · IMPLIED 38.5% EV +6.6%

Draw 24.5%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV -13.0%

Sportivo Carapeguá (A) 34.5%

ODDS 2.40 · IMPLIED 41.7% EV -17.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

3 de Noviembre face Sportivo Carapeguá in Paraguay - Division Intermedia on Monday, August 3, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives 3 de Noviembre a 41% chance, the draw 25% and Sportivo Carapeguá 35%, so 3 de Noviembre are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for 3 de Noviembre and 1.5 for Sportivo Carapeguá (3.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 63% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 62% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, 3 de Noviembre are averaging 0.75 points per game versus 0.75 for Sportivo Carapeguá. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +32.6%.

3 de Noviembre vs Sportivo Carapeguá Prediction— Paraguay - Division Intermedia

Match Preview & Prediction

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