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Erokspor vs Keciorengucu Prediction— Turkey - 1. Lig

Regular Season - 36 ·Sunday, April 19, 2026, 13:00

Erokspor

PPG 1.94 · HOME

1 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

Keciorengucu

PPG 1.35 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.5 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 68.8% vs bookmaker-implied 69.0%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.9%0-13.6%0-22.2%0-30.9%0-4+0.4%1 1-06.6%1-18.2%1-25.1%1-32.1%1-4+0.9%2 2-07.7%2-19.5%2-25.9%2-32.4%2-4+1.0%3 3-05.9%3-17.3%3-24.5%3-31.9%3-4+0.8%4+ 4+-05.8%4+-17.2%4+-24.5%4+-31.9%4+-4+0.8%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 61.3% 63.7% 1.57 -3.8%

Draw 19.3% 24.4% 4.10 -20.9%

Away win 19.5% 21.7% 4.60 -10.3%

Over 2.5 68.8% 69.0% 1.45 -0.2%

Over 3.5 47.4% 46.5% 2.15 +1.9%

BTTS 64.0% 66.7% 1.50 -4.0%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 25 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 52%

O2.5 52%

BTTS 48%

Score Hit 48%

ROI -9.6%

Bet Hit 59%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 67%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-0

xG (home)2.3 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob64.0%

H 61% / xG 2.3-1.2 / O2.5 69% / BTTS 64%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–1 9.5%

#2 1–1 8.2%

#3 2–0 7.7%

#4 3–1 7.3%

#5 1–0✓ 6.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Erokspor2.3

Keciorengucu1.2

COMBINED 3.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 68.8% · O3.5 PROB 47.4%

Form & verdict PPG

EROKSPOR · PPG 1.94

KECIORENGUCU · PPG 1.35

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.94) > Away AVERAGE (1.35)

Win probability 1X2

Erokspor (H) 61.3%

ODDS 1.57 · IMPLIED 63.7% EV -3.8%

Draw 19.3%

ODDS 4.10 · IMPLIED 24.4% EV -20.9%

Keciorengucu (A) 19.5%

ODDS 4.60 · IMPLIED 21.7% EV -10.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Erokspor face Keciorengucu in Turkey - 1. Lig on Sunday, April 19, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Erokspor a 61% chance, the draw 19% and Keciorengucu 20%, so Erokspor are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.3 for Erokspor and 1.2 for Keciorengucu (3.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-1. There is a 69% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 64% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Erokspor are averaging 1.94 points per game versus 1.35 for Keciorengucu. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +1.9%. This match finished 1-0.

Erokspor vs Keciorengucu Prediction— Turkey - 1. Lig

Match Preview & Prediction

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