Today / Turkey - 1. Lig / Corum vs Sivasspor

Corum vs Sivasspor Prediction— Turkey - 1. Lig

Matchday 36 ·Sunday, April 19, 2026, 13:00

Corum

PPG 2.18 · HOME

LAST 5

DWLWW

3 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

Sivasspor

PPG 1.18 · AWAY

LAST 5

WLLWL

// Model verdict

Home 62% chance

Model probability 54.4% vs bookmaker-implied 65.4%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-010.1%0-17.9%0-23.1%0-30.8%0-4+0.2%1 1-015.2%1-112.0%1-24.7%1-31.2%1-4+0.3%2 2-011.5%2-19.0%2-23.5%2-30.9%2-4+0.2%3 3-05.8%3-14.5%3-21.8%3-30.5%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-03.0%4+-12.4%4+-20.9%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 54.4% 65.4% 1.53 -16.8%

Draw 26.1% 25.3% 3.95 +3.1%

Away win 19.5% 18.5% 5.40 +5.3%

Over 2.5 40.2% 58.8% 1.70 -31.7%

Over 3.5 19.9% 36.4% 2.75 -45.3%

BTTS 42.3% 57.8% 1.73 -26.8%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 38 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 45%

O2.5 50%

BTTS 55%

Score Hit 50%

ROI -50.8%

Bet Hit 33%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 46%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-1

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob42.3%

H 54% / xG 1.5-0.8 / U2.5 40% / NoBTTS 42%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 15.2%

#2 1–1 12.0%

#3 2–0 11.5%

#4 0–0 10.1%

#5 2–1 9.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Corum1.5

Sivasspor0.8

COMBINED 2.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 40.2% · O3.5 PROB 19.9%

Form & verdict PPG

CORUM · PPG 2.18

SIVASSPOR · PPG 1.18

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value | B...

Chance this pick lands

62%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.18) vs P(Home)=54.4%

Win probability 1X2

Corum (H) 54.4%

ODDS 1.53 · IMPLIED 65.4% EV -16.8%

Draw 26.1%

ODDS 3.95 · IMPLIED 25.3% EV +3.1%

Sivasspor (A) 19.5%

ODDS 5.40 · IMPLIED 18.5% EV +5.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Corum face Sivasspor in Turkey - 1. Lig on Sunday, April 19, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Corum a 54% chance, the draw 26% and Sivasspor 20%, so Corum are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Corum and 0.8 for Sivasspor (2.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 40% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 42% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Corum are averaging 2.18 points per game versus 1.18 for Sivasspor. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +5.3%. This match finished 3-1.

Corum vs Sivasspor Prediction— Turkey - 1. Lig

Match Preview & Prediction

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