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Corum vs Sivasspor Prediction— Turkey - 1. Lig

Turkey - 1. Lig logo Turkey flag Turkey - 1. Lig Regular Season - 36 Corum Stadyumu· Corum Sunday, April 19, 2026 13:00
Corum logo Corum PPG 2.18
3-1 MISS
Sivasspor logo Sivasspor PPG 1.18
Away· +5.3% ⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value | B...
55% confidence

Match Preview & Prediction

Corum face Sivasspor in Turkey - 1. Lig on Sunday, April 19, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Corum a 54% chance, the draw 26% and Sivasspor 20%, so Corum are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Corum and 0.8 for Sivasspor (2.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 40% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 42% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Corum are averaging 2.18 points per game versus 1.18 for Sivasspor. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +5.3%. This match finished 3-1.

Match Result (1X2)

Home 54.4%
Odds: 1.53 EV: -16.8%
Draw 26.1%
Odds: 3.95 EV: +3.1%
Away 19.5%
Odds: 5.40 EV: +5.3%
Model lean: Home Not tracked as an official bet.
Result: Home ✔

Goals Markets

Over 2.5 40.2% Odds: 1.70 -31.7%
Over 3.5 19.9% Odds: 2.75 -45.3%
BTTS 42.3% Odds: 1.73 -26.8%
O2.5 UNDER → OVER ✘ BTTS NO → YES ✘

Correct Score Picks

1st 1-0
2nd 1-1
3rd 2-0
4th 0-0
5th 2-1

Expected Goals (xG)

Corum
1.51
Sivasspor
0.79

Model Suggestion

Home -16.8% NO VALUE BET
No value bet: model leans Home, but EV is -16.8% at these odds — not a recommended bet.
Highest raw EV: Away (+5.3%) — probability too low to qualify.

League Track Record

Based on 25 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 52%
O2.5/Under 52%
BTTS/No 48%
Score Hit 48%
ROI -82.8%
Bet Hit 17% (6 bets)

Verdict & Form

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value | B...
55%
HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.18) vs P(Home)=54.4%

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