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Boluspor vs Adana Demirspor Prediction— Turkey - 1. Lig

Matchday 36 ·Sunday, April 19, 2026, 13:00

Boluspor

PPG 1.47 · HOME

LAST 5

LLWLW

6 – 0

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

Adana Demirspor

PPG 0.06 · AWAY

LAST 5

LLLLL 

// Model verdict

Home 97% chance

Model probability 98.0% vs bookmaker-implied 97.1% — a real, if thin, edge.

+0.9% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-00.2%0-10.1%0-20.0%0-30.0%0-4+0.0%1 1-01.2%1-10.6%1-20.2%1-30.0%1-4+0.0%2 2-03.3%2-11.8%2-20.5%2-30.1%2-4+0.0%3 3-06.2%3-13.3%3-20.9%3-30.2%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-047.7%4+-125.6%4+-26.9%4+-31.2%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 98.0% 97.1% 1.03 +0.9%

Draw 1.5% 9.5% 10.50 -84.3%

Away win 0.5% 3.8% 26.00 -87.0%

Over 2.5 94.6% — — —

Over 3.5 86.5% 80.0% 1.25 +8.1%

BTTS 41.4% 54.6% 1.83 -24.2%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 38 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 45%

O2.5 50%

BTTS 55%

Score Hit 50%

ROI -50.8%

Bet Hit 33%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

4 – 1 68%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 6-0

xG (home)5.7 xG (away)0.5 BTTS prob41.4%

H 98% / xG 5.7-0.5 / O2.5 95% / NoBTTS 41%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 5–0 9.9%

#2 4–0 8.7%

#3 3–0 6.2%

#4 5–1 5.3%

#5 4–1 4.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Boluspor5.7

Adana Demirspor0.5

COMBINED 6.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 94.6% · O3.5 PROB 86.5%

Form & verdict PPG

BOLUSPOR · PPG 1.47

ADANA DEMIRSPOR · PPG 0.06

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

Chance this pick lands

97%

STRONG_HOME

Home team in AVERAGE form (1.47), Away POOR (0.06) - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Boluspor (H) 98.0%

ODDS 1.03 · IMPLIED 97.1% EV +0.9%

Draw 1.5%

ODDS 10.50 · IMPLIED 9.5% EV -84.3%

Adana Demirspor (A) 0.5%

ODDS 26.00 · IMPLIED 3.8% EV -87.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Boluspor face Adana Demirspor in Turkey - 1. Lig on Sunday, April 19, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Boluspor a 98% chance, the draw 2% and Adana Demirspor 1%, so Boluspor are favoured to win. Expected goals are 5.7 for Boluspor and 0.5 for Adana Demirspor (6.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 5-0. There is a 95% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 41% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Boluspor are averaging 1.47 points per game versus 0.06 for Adana Demirspor. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +8.1%. This match finished 6-0.

Boluspor vs Adana Demirspor Prediction— Turkey - 1. Lig

Match Preview & Prediction

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