Today / Turkey - 1. Lig / Bodrumspor vs Erzurum BB

Bodrumspor vs Erzurum BB Prediction— Turkey - 1. Lig

Matchday 36 ·Sunday, April 19, 2026, 13:00

Bodrumspor

PPG 2.12 · HOME

LAST 5

DLWWL

1 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Erzurum BB

PPG 2.12 · AWAY

LAST 5

WWDDD

// Model verdict

BTTS 57% chance

Model probability 54.9% vs bookmaker-implied 57.8%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.5%0-19.9%0-27.6%0-33.9%0-4+2.1%1 1-07.8%1-112.0%1-29.2%1-34.7%1-4+2.5%2 2-04.7%2-17.2%2-25.5%2-32.8%2-4+1.5%3 3-01.9%3-12.9%3-22.2%3-31.1%3-4+0.6%4+ 4+-00.7%4+-11.1%4+-20.9%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 29.8% 31.3% 3.20 -4.6%

Draw 25.2% 30.3% 3.30 -16.8%

Away win 44.9% 48.8% 2.05 -8.0%

Over 2.5 51.6% 51.3% 1.95 +0.6%

Over 3.5 29.4% 29.0% 3.45 +1.4%

BTTS 54.9% 57.8% 1.73 -5.0%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 38 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 45%

O2.5 50%

BTTS 55%

Score Hit 50%

ROI -50.8%

Bet Hit 33%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 30%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-1

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)1.5 BTTS prob54.9%

A 45% / xG 1.2-1.5 / O2.5 52% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1✓ 12.0%

#2 0–1 9.9%

#3 1–2 9.2%

#4 1–0 7.8%

#5 0–2 7.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Bodrumspor1.2

Erzurum BB1.5

COMBINED 2.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 51.6% · O3.5 PROB 29.4%

Form & verdict PPG

BODRUMSPOR · PPG 2.12

ERZURUM BB · PPG 2.12

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

Chance this pick lands

57%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home EXCELLENT (2.12), Away EXCELLENT (2.12)

Win probability 1X2

Bodrumspor (H) 29.8%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV -4.6%

Draw 25.2%

ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV -16.8%

Erzurum BB (A) 44.9%

ODDS 2.05 · IMPLIED 48.8% EV -8.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Bodrumspor face Erzurum BB in Turkey - 1. Lig on Sunday, April 19, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Bodrumspor a 30% chance, the draw 25% and Erzurum BB 45%, so Erzurum BB are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for Bodrumspor and 1.5 for Erzurum BB (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 52% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Bodrumspor are averaging 2.12 points per game versus 2.12 for Erzurum BB. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +1.4%. This match finished 1-1.

Bodrumspor vs Erzurum BB Prediction— Turkey - 1. Lig

Match Preview & Prediction

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