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Defensores de Belgrano VR vs Bartolomé Mitre Prediction— Argentina - Torneo Federal A

Winners Stage - 1 ·Sunday, August 2, 2026, 18:30

Defensores de Belgrano VR

PPG 2.11 · HOME

UPCOMING

Bartolomé Mitre

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-017.0%0-110.9%0-23.5%0-30.7%0-4+0.1%1 1-019.3%1-112.3%1-23.9%1-30.8%1-4+0.2%2 2-010.9%2-17.0%2-22.2%2-30.5%2-4+0.1%3 3-04.1%3-12.6%3-20.8%3-30.2%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-01.5%4+-11.0%4+-20.3%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 46.4% — — —

Draw 30.5% — — —

Away win 23.1% — — —

Over 2.5 37.3% — — —

Over 3.5 18.6% — — —

BTTS 45.4% — — —

Home O1.5 32.6% — — —

Away O1.5 18.8% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 17 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 29%

O2.5 82%

BTTS 47%

Score Hit 59%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 39%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.1 xG (away)0.6 BTTS prob45.4%

H 46% / xG 1.1-0.6 / U2.5 37% / NoBTTS 45%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 17.0%

#2 1–0 19.3%

#3 1–1 12.3%

#4 2–0 10.9%

#5 0–1 10.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Defensores de Belgrano VR1.1

Bartolomé Mitre0.6

COMBINED 1.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 37.3% · O3.5 PROB 18.6%

Form & verdict PPG

DEFENSORES DE BELGRANO VR · PPG 2.11

BARTOLOMÉ MITRE · PPG 1.00

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected | No clear v...

45%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.49, combined xG 1.77 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Defensores de Belgrano VR (H) 46.4%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 30.5%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Bartolomé Mitre (A) 23.1%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Defensores de Belgrano VR face Bartolomé Mitre in Argentina - Torneo Federal A on Sunday, August 2, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Defensores de Belgrano VR a 46% chance, the draw 31% and Bartolomé Mitre 23%, so Defensores de Belgrano VR are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.1 for Defensores de Belgrano VR and 0.6 for Bartolomé Mitre (1.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 37% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 45% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Defensores de Belgrano VR are averaging 2.11 points per game versus 1.00 for Bartolomé Mitre.

Defensores de Belgrano VR vs Bartolomé Mitre Prediction— Argentina - Torneo Federal A

Match Preview & Prediction

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