Today / Argentina - Torneo Federal A / 9 de Julio Rafaela vs Douglas Haig

9 de Julio Rafaela vs Douglas Haig Prediction— Argentina - Torneo Federal A

Winners Stage - 1 ·Sunday, August 2, 2026, 19:00

9 de Julio Rafaela

PPG 2.11 · HOME

UPCOMING

Douglas Haig

PPG 1.11 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.2 puts the goal expectation well above the line.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.0%0-14.9%0-23.0%0-31.2%0-4+0.5%1 1-08.0%1-19.8%1-25.9%1-32.4%1-4+1.0%2 2-08.0%2-19.8%2-25.9%2-32.4%2-4+1.0%3 3-05.3%3-16.5%3-24.0%3-31.6%3-4+0.6%4+ 4+-04.2%4+-15.1%4+-23.1%4+-31.3%4+-4+0.5%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 52.3% — — —

Draw 22.3% — — —

Away win 25.4% — — —

Over 2.5 63.6% — — —

Over 3.5 40.2% — — —

BTTS 62.1% — — —

Home O1.5 53.6% — — —

Away O1.5 36.5% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 17 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 29%

O2.5 82%

BTTS 47%

Score Hit 59%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 51%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.0 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob62.1%

H 52% / xG 2.0-1.2 / O2.5 64% / BTTS 62%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.8%

#2 2–1 9.8%

#3 2–0 8.0%

#4 1–0 8.0%

#5 3–1 6.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

9 de Julio Rafaela2.0

Douglas Haig1.2

COMBINED 3.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.6% · O3.5 PROB 40.2%

Form & verdict PPG

9 DE JULIO RAFAELA · PPG 2.11

DOUGLAS HAIG · PPG 1.11

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.78 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

9 de Julio Rafaela (H) 52.3%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 22.3%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Douglas Haig (A) 25.4%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

9 de Julio Rafaela face Douglas Haig in Argentina - Torneo Federal A on Sunday, August 2, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives 9 de Julio Rafaela a 52% chance, the draw 22% and Douglas Haig 25%, so 9 de Julio Rafaela are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.0 for 9 de Julio Rafaela and 1.2 for Douglas Haig (3.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 62% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, 9 de Julio Rafaela are averaging 2.11 points per game versus 1.11 for Douglas Haig.

9 de Julio Rafaela vs Douglas Haig Prediction— Argentina - Torneo Federal A

Match Preview & Prediction

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