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Gimnasia Concepción vs Tucuman Central Prediction— Argentina - Torneo Federal A

Losers Stage - 1 ·Sunday, August 2, 2026, 18:30

Gimnasia Concepción

PPG 1.33 · HOME

UPCOMING

Tucuman Central

PPG 0.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

xG gap +0.72 - moderate Home edge

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-013.7%0-18.7%0-22.7%0-30.6%0-4+0.1%1 1-018.6%1-111.8%1-23.7%1-30.8%1-4+0.1%2 2-012.6%2-18.0%2-22.5%2-30.5%2-4+0.1%3 3-05.7%3-13.6%3-21.1%3-30.2%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-02.6%4+-11.6%4+-20.5%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 52.4% — — —

Draw 26.4% — — —

Away win 21.3% — — —

Over 2.5 44.0% — — —

Over 3.5 22.8% — — —

BTTS 48.7% — — —

Home O1.5 38.3% — — —

Away O1.5 18.2% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 17 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 29%

O2.5 82%

BTTS 47%

Score Hit 59%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 36%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)0.6 BTTS prob48.7%

H 52% / xG 1.4-0.6 / U2.5 44% / NoBTTS 49%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 18.6%

#2 0–0 13.7%

#3 1–1 11.8%

#4 2–0 12.6%

#5 2–1 8.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Gimnasia Concepción1.4

Tucuman Central0.6

COMBINED 2.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 44.0% · O3.5 PROB 22.8%

Form & verdict PPG

GIMNASIA CONCEPCIÓN · PPG 1.33

TUCUMAN CENTRAL · PPG 0.00

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.72 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Gimnasia Concepción (H) 52.4%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 26.4%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Tucuman Central (A) 21.3%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Gimnasia Concepción face Tucuman Central in Argentina - Torneo Federal A on Sunday, August 2, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Gimnasia Concepción a 52% chance, the draw 26% and Tucuman Central 21%, so Gimnasia Concepción are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Gimnasia Concepción and 0.6 for Tucuman Central (2.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 44% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Gimnasia Concepción are averaging 1.33 points per game versus 0.00 for Tucuman Central.

Gimnasia Concepción vs Tucuman Central Prediction— Argentina - Torneo Federal A

Match Preview & Prediction

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