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Atenas vs Villa Mitre Prediction— Argentina - Torneo Federal A

Winners Stage - 1 ·Sunday, August 2, 2026, 18:45

Atenas

PPG 1.62 · HOME

UPCOMING

Villa Mitre

PPG 0.88 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-025.6%0-114.5%0-24.1%0-30.8%0-4+0.1%1 1-020.4%1-111.5%1-23.3%1-30.6%1-4+0.1%2 2-08.1%2-14.6%2-21.3%2-30.2%2-4+0.0%3 3-02.2%3-11.2%3-20.3%3-30.1%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-00.5%4+-10.3%4+-20.1%4+-30.0%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 37.9% — — —

Draw 33.9% — — —

Away win 28.1% — — —

Over 2.5 33.6% — — —

Over 3.5 14.3% — — —

BTTS 44.5% — — —

Home O1.5 32.6% — — —

Away O1.5 17.4% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 17 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 29%

O2.5 82%

BTTS 47%

Score Hit 59%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 50%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)0.8 xG (away)0.6 BTTS prob44.5%

D 34% / xG 0.8-0.6 / U2.5 34% / NoBTTS 44%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 25.6%

#2 1–0 20.4%

#3 1–1 11.5%

#4 0–1 14.5%

#5 2–0 8.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Atenas0.8

Villa Mitre0.6

COMBINED 1.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 33.6% · O3.5 PROB 14.3%

Form & verdict PPG

ATENAS · PPG 1.62

VILLA MITRE · PPG 0.88

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected | No clear v...

45%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.23, combined xG 1.36 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Atenas (H) 37.9%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 33.9%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Villa Mitre (A) 28.1%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Atenas face Villa Mitre in Argentina - Torneo Federal A on Sunday, August 2, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Atenas a 38% chance, the draw 34% and Villa Mitre 28%, so Atenas are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.8 for Atenas and 0.6 for Villa Mitre (1.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 34% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 45% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Atenas are averaging 1.62 points per game versus 0.88 for Villa Mitre.

Atenas vs Villa Mitre Prediction— Argentina - Torneo Federal A

Match Preview & Prediction

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