Today / Argentina - Torneo Federal A / Sol de Mayo vs Santamarina

Sol de Mayo vs Santamarina Prediction— Argentina - Torneo Federal A

Losers Stage - 1 ·Sunday, August 2, 2026, 18:00

Sol de Mayo

PPG 1.38 · HOME

UPCOMING

Santamarina

PPG 0.50 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

xG gap +0.96 - moderate Home edge

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-013.0%0-17.0%0-21.9%0-30.3%0-4+0.1%1 1-019.5%1-110.5%1-22.9%1-30.5%1-4+0.1%2 2-014.6%2-17.9%2-22.1%2-30.4%2-4+0.1%3 3-07.3%3-14.0%3-21.1%3-30.2%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-03.8%4+-12.1%4+-20.6%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 53.6% — — —

Draw 24.7% — — —

Away win 21.7% — — —

Over 2.5 45.7% — — —

Over 3.5 28.8% — — —

BTTS 48.7% — — —

Home O1.5 45.4% — — —

Away O1.5 17.4% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 17 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 29%

O2.5 82%

BTTS 47%

Score Hit 59%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 35%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)0.5 BTTS prob48.7%

H 54% / xG 1.5-0.5 / U2.5 46% / NoBTTS 49%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 19.5%

#2 2–0 14.6%

#3 0–0 13.0%

#4 1–1 10.5%

#5 2–1 7.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Sol de Mayo1.5

Santamarina0.5

COMBINED 2.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 45.7% · O3.5 PROB 28.8%

Form & verdict PPG

SOL DE MAYO · PPG 1.38

SANTAMARINA · PPG 0.50

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.96 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Sol de Mayo (H) 53.6%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 24.7%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Santamarina (A) 21.7%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Sol de Mayo face Santamarina in Argentina - Torneo Federal A on Sunday, August 2, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Sol de Mayo a 54% chance, the draw 25% and Santamarina 22%, so Sol de Mayo are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Sol de Mayo and 0.5 for Santamarina (2.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 46% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Sol de Mayo are averaging 1.38 points per game versus 0.50 for Santamarina.

Sol de Mayo vs Santamarina Prediction— Argentina - Torneo Federal A

Match Preview & Prediction

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