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Fundacion Amigos vs Circulo Deportivo Prediction— Argentina - Torneo Federal A

Losers Stage - 1 ·Sunday, August 2, 2026, 14:30

Fundacion Amigos

PPG 1.62 · HOME

UPCOMING

Circulo Deportivo

PPG 0.38 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

xG gap +1.22 - moderate Home edge

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-014.1%0-15.2%0-21.0%0-30.1%0-4+0.0%1 1-022.5%1-18.2%1-21.5%1-30.2%1-4+0.0%2 2-017.9%2-16.6%2-21.2%2-30.1%2-4+0.0%3 3-09.5%3-13.5%3-20.6%3-30.1%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-05.4%4+-12.0%4+-20.4%4+-30.0%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 57.9% — — —

Draw 25.6% — — —

Away win 16.4% — — —

Over 2.5 37.3% — — —

Over 3.5 18.9% — — —

BTTS 44.5% — — —

Home O1.5 49.4% — — —

Away O1.5 11.1% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 17 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 29%

O2.5 82%

BTTS 47%

Score Hit 59%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 51%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)0.4 BTTS prob44.5%

H 58% / xG 1.6-0.4 / U2.5 37% / NoBTTS 44%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 22.5%

#2 2–0 17.9%

#3 0–0 14.1%

#4 3–0 9.5%

#5 1–1 8.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Fundacion Amigos1.6

Circulo Deportivo0.4

COMBINED 2.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 37.3% · O3.5 PROB 18.9%

Form & verdict PPG

FUNDACION AMIGOS · PPG 1.62

CIRCULO DEPORTIVO · PPG 0.38

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +1.22 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Fundacion Amigos (H) 57.9%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 25.6%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Circulo Deportivo (A) 16.4%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Fundacion Amigos face Circulo Deportivo in Argentina - Torneo Federal A on Sunday, August 2, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Fundacion Amigos a 58% chance, the draw 26% and Circulo Deportivo 16%, so Fundacion Amigos are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Fundacion Amigos and 0.4 for Circulo Deportivo (2.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 37% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 45% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Fundacion Amigos are averaging 1.62 points per game versus 0.38 for Circulo Deportivo.

Fundacion Amigos vs Circulo Deportivo Prediction— Argentina - Torneo Federal A

Match Preview & Prediction

More Argentina - Torneo Federal A Predictions