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Al Sahel vs Burgan Prediction— Kuwait - Division 1

Regular Season - 16 ·Sunday, August 2, 2026, 17:45

Al Sahel

PPG 1.67 · HOME

UPCOMING

Burgan

PPG 1.12 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

xG gap +0.49 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.9%0-18.1%0-24.1%0-31.4%0-4+0.4%1 1-012.0%1-112.3%1-26.2%1-32.1%1-4+0.7%2 2-09.1%2-19.3%2-24.7%2-31.6%2-4+0.5%3 3-04.6%3-14.7%3-22.4%3-30.8%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-02.4%4+-12.5%4+-21.3%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 47.7% — — —

Draw 24.7% — — —

Away win 27.5% — — —

Over 2.5 53.4% — — —

Over 3.5 32.2% — — —

BTTS 55.4% — — —

Home O1.5 45.4% — — —

Away O1.5 31.6% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 8 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 50%

O2.5 38%

BTTS 13%

Score Hit 75%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 31%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob55.4%

H 48% / xG 1.5-1.0 / O2.5 53% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.3%

#2 1–0 12.0%

#3 0–0 7.9%

#4 2–1 9.3%

#5 2–0 9.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Al Sahel1.5

Burgan1.0

COMBINED 2.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.4% · O3.5 PROB 32.2%

Form & verdict PPG

AL SAHEL · PPG 1.67

BURGAN · PPG 1.12

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.49 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Al Sahel (H) 47.7%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 24.7%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Burgan (A) 27.5%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Al Sahel face Burgan in Kuwait - Division 1 on Sunday, August 2, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Al Sahel a 48% chance, the draw 25% and Burgan 28%, so Al Sahel are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Al Sahel and 1.0 for Burgan (2.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 53% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Al Sahel are averaging 1.67 points per game versus 1.12 for Burgan.

Al Sahel vs Burgan Prediction— Kuwait - Division 1

Match Preview & Prediction

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