Today / Kuwait - Division 1 / Burgan vs Sporty

Burgan vs Sporty Prediction— Kuwait - Division 1

Regular Season - 14 ·Saturday, July 25, 2026, 17:45

Burgan

PPG 1.00 · HOME

UPCOMING

Sporty

PPG 0.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 54.6% vs bookmaker-implied 66.7%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-09.1%0-17.4%0-23.0%0-30.8%0-4+0.2%1 1-014.5%1-111.7%1-24.7%1-31.3%1-4+0.3%2 2-011.5%2-19.3%2-23.7%2-31.0%2-4+0.2%3 3-06.1%3-14.9%3-22.0%3-30.5%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-03.5%4+-12.8%4+-21.1%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 54.6% 66.7% 1.50 -18.1%

Draw 25.1% 26.3% 3.80 -2.8%

Away win 20.3% 19.0% 5.25 +4.0%

Over 2.5 50.0% 54.1% 1.85 -7.5%

Over 3.5 28.7% 34.2% 2.92 -9.7%

BTTS 52.3% 53.5% 1.87 -2.2%

Home O1.5 51.0% 61.7% 1.62 -17.4%

Away O1.5 20.1% 23.3% 4.30 -8.1%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 30%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob52.3%

H 55% / xG 1.6-0.8 / U2.5 50% / BTTS 52%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.7%

#2 1–0 14.5%

#3 2–0 11.5%

#4 0–0 9.1%

#5 2–1 9.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Burgan1.6

Sporty0.8

COMBINED 2.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.0% · O3.5 PROB 28.7%

Form & verdict PPG

BURGAN · PPG 1.00

SPORTY · PPG 0.00

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.78 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Burgan (H) 54.6%

ODDS 1.50 · IMPLIED 66.7% EV -18.1%

Draw 25.1%

ODDS 3.80 · IMPLIED 26.3% EV -2.8%

Sporty (A) 20.3%

ODDS 5.25 · IMPLIED 19.0% EV +4.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Burgan face Sporty in Kuwait - Division 1 on Saturday, July 25, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Burgan a 55% chance, the draw 25% and Sporty 20%, so Burgan are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Burgan and 0.8 for Sporty (2.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 52% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Burgan are averaging 1.00 points per game versus 0.00 for Sporty.

Burgan vs Sporty Prediction— Kuwait - Division 1

Match Preview & Prediction

More Kuwait - Division 1 Predictions