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Shamiya vs Yarmouk Prediction— Kuwait - Division 1

Regular Season - 16 ·Sunday, August 2, 2026, 17:45

Shamiya

PPG 0.50 · HOME

UPCOMING

Yarmouk

PPG 2.44 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Away Over 1.5

xG gap -3.73 for Away, form 0.50 vs 2.44

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-00.6%0-12.7%0-26.0%0-38.8%0-4+32.6%1 1-00.4%1-11.8%1-24.1%1-36.0%1-4+22.1%2 2-00.1%2-10.6%2-21.4%2-32.0%2-4+7.5%3 3-00.0%3-10.1%3-20.3%3-30.5%3-4+1.7%4+ 4+-00.0%4+-10.0%4+-20.1%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 13.1% — — —

Draw 15.1% — — —

Away win 71.8% — — —

Over 2.5 74.5% — — —

Over 3.5 54.0% — — —

BTTS 52.6% — — —

Home O1.5 32.6% — — —

Away O1.5 86.7% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 8 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 50%

O2.5 38%

BTTS 13%

Score Hit 75%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 4 70%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)0.7 xG (away)4.4 BTTS prob52.6%

A 72% / xG 0.7-4.4 / O2.5 74% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–4 9.7%

#2 0–3 8.8%

#3 0–5 8.6%

#4 1–4 6.6%

#5 0–2 6.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Shamiya0.7

Yarmouk4.4

COMBINED 5.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 74.5% · O3.5 PROB 54.0%

Form & verdict PPG

SHAMIYA · PPG 0.50

YARMOUK · PPG 2.44

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Away team showing momentum | No clear value

63%

UPSET_VALUE

xG gap -3.73 for Away, form 0.50 vs 2.44

Win probability 1X2

Shamiya (H) 13.1%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 15.1%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Yarmouk (A) 71.8%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Shamiya face Yarmouk in Kuwait - Division 1 on Sunday, August 2, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Shamiya a 13% chance, the draw 15% and Yarmouk 72%, so Yarmouk are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.7 for Shamiya and 4.4 for Yarmouk (5.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-4. There is a 75% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Shamiya are averaging 0.50 points per game versus 2.44 for Yarmouk.

Shamiya vs Yarmouk Prediction— Kuwait - Division 1

Match Preview & Prediction

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