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Gimnasia Chivilcoy vs Sportivo Belgrano Prediction— Argentina - Torneo Federal A

Winners Stage - 1 ·Saturday, August 1, 2026, 19:30

Gimnasia Chivilcoy

PPG 2.33 · HOME

UPCOMING

Sportivo Belgrano

PPG 1.56 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-031.7%0-114.5%0-23.3%0-30.5%0-4+0.1%1 1-021.9%1-110.0%1-22.3%1-30.3%1-4+0.0%2 2-07.6%2-13.5%2-20.8%2-30.1%2-4+0.0%3 3-01.7%3-10.8%3-20.2%3-30.0%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-00.3%4+-10.2%4+-20.0%4+-30.0%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 39.8% — — —

Draw 36.9% — — —

Away win 23.3% — — —

Over 2.5 27.6% — — —

Over 3.5 11.1% — — —

BTTS 33.3% — — —

Home O1.5 32.6% — — —

Away O1.5 15.7% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 17 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 29%

O2.5 82%

BTTS 47%

Score Hit 59%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 39%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)0.7 xG (away)0.5 BTTS prob33.3%

H 40% / xG 0.7-0.5 / U2.5 28% / NoBTTS 33%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 31.7%

#2 1–0 21.9%

#3 0–1 14.5%

#4 1–1 10.0%

#5 2–0 7.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Gimnasia Chivilcoy0.7

Sportivo Belgrano0.5

COMBINED 1.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 27.6% · O3.5 PROB 11.1%

Form & verdict PPG

GIMNASIA CHIVILCOY · PPG 2.33

SPORTIVO BELGRANO · PPG 1.56

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected | No clear v...

45%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.23, combined xG 1.15 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Gimnasia Chivilcoy (H) 39.8%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 36.9%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Sportivo Belgrano (A) 23.3%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Gimnasia Chivilcoy face Sportivo Belgrano in Argentina - Torneo Federal A on Saturday, August 1, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Gimnasia Chivilcoy a 40% chance, the draw 37% and Sportivo Belgrano 23%, so Gimnasia Chivilcoy are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.7 for Gimnasia Chivilcoy and 0.5 for Sportivo Belgrano (1.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 28% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 33% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Gimnasia Chivilcoy are averaging 2.33 points per game versus 1.56 for Sportivo Belgrano.

Gimnasia Chivilcoy vs Sportivo Belgrano Prediction— Argentina - Torneo Federal A

Match Preview & Prediction

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