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Atletico Escobar vs Boca Unidos Prediction— Argentina - Torneo Federal A

Losers Stage - 1 ·Saturday, August 1, 2026, 18:30

Atletico Escobar

PPG 1.89 · HOME

UPCOMING

Boca Unidos

PPG 0.38 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.7 puts the goal expectation well above the line.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.4%0-12.8%0-21.7%0-30.7%0-4+0.2%1 1-06.1%1-17.2%1-24.2%1-31.7%1-4+0.6%2 2-07.8%2-19.2%2-25.4%2-32.1%2-4+0.8%3 3-06.7%3-17.8%3-24.6%3-31.8%3-4+0.7%4+ 4+-07.8%4+-19.2%4+-25.4%4+-32.1%4+-4+0.8%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 60.3% — — —

Draw 19.8% — — —

Away win 19.9% — — —

Over 2.5 66.7% — — —

Over 3.5 44.8% — — —

BTTS 62.1% — — —

Home O1.5 64.0% — — —

Away O1.5 36.5% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 17 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 29%

O2.5 82%

BTTS 47%

Score Hit 59%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 67%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.6 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob62.1%

H 60% / xG 2.6-1.2 / O2.5 67% / BTTS 62%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–1 9.2%

#2 1–1 7.2%

#3 3–1 7.8%

#4 2–0 7.8%

#5 3–0 6.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Atletico Escobar2.6

Boca Unidos1.2

COMBINED 3.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 66.7% · O3.5 PROB 44.8%

Form & verdict PPG

ATLETICO ESCOBAR · PPG 1.89

BOCA UNIDOS · PPG 0.38

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +1.38 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Atletico Escobar (H) 60.3%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 19.8%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Boca Unidos (A) 19.9%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Atletico Escobar face Boca Unidos in Argentina - Torneo Federal A on Saturday, August 1, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Atletico Escobar a 60% chance, the draw 20% and Boca Unidos 20%, so Atletico Escobar are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.6 for Atletico Escobar and 1.2 for Boca Unidos (3.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-1. There is a 67% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 62% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Atletico Escobar are averaging 1.89 points per game versus 0.38 for Boca Unidos.

Atletico Escobar vs Boca Unidos Prediction— Argentina - Torneo Federal A

Match Preview & Prediction

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