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Olimpo Bahia Blanca vs Santamarina Prediction— Argentina - Torneo Federal A

Regular Season - 18 ·Sunday, July 26, 2026, 18:00

Olimpo Bahia Blanca

PPG 2.14 · HOME

UPCOMING

Santamarina

PPG 0.57 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

xG gap +0.86 - moderate Home edge

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-026.0%0-16.3%0-20.8%0-30.1%0-4+0.0%1 1-028.7%1-17.0%1-20.8%1-30.1%1-4+0.0%2 2-015.8%2-13.8%2-20.5%2-30.0%2-4+0.0%3 3-05.8%3-11.4%3-20.2%3-30.0%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-02.0%4+-10.5%4+-20.1%4+-30.0%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 53.8% — — —

Draw 31.5% — — —

Away win 14.7% — — —

Over 2.5 33.3% — — —

Over 3.5 13.0% — — —

BTTS 30.0% — — —

Home O1.5 35.0% — — —

Away O1.5 11.1% — — —

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 52%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.1 xG (away)0.2 BTTS prob30.0%

H 54% / xG 1.1-0.2 / U2.5 33% / NoBTTS 30%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 28.7%

#2 0–0 26.0%

#3 2–0 15.8%

#4 1–1 7.0%

#5 3–0 5.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Olimpo Bahia Blanca1.1

Santamarina0.2

COMBINED 1.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 33.3% · O3.5 PROB 13.0%

Form & verdict PPG

OLIMPO BAHIA BLANCA · PPG 2.14

SANTAMARINA · PPG 0.57

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.86 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Olimpo Bahia Blanca (H) 53.8%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 31.5%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Santamarina (A) 14.7%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Olimpo Bahia Blanca face Santamarina in Argentina - Torneo Federal A on Sunday, July 26, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Olimpo Bahia Blanca a 54% chance, the draw 32% and Santamarina 15%, so Olimpo Bahia Blanca are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.1 for Olimpo Bahia Blanca and 0.2 for Santamarina (1.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 33% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 30% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Olimpo Bahia Blanca are averaging 2.14 points per game versus 0.57 for Santamarina.

Olimpo Bahia Blanca vs Santamarina Prediction— Argentina - Torneo Federal A

Match Preview & Prediction

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