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Douglas Haig vs 9 de Julio Rafaela Prediction— Argentina - Torneo Federal A

Regular Season - 18 ·Sunday, July 26, 2026, 18:00

Douglas Haig

PPG 2.25 · HOME

UPCOMING

9 de Julio Rafaela

PPG 0.75 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

xG gap +1.42 - moderate Home edge

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.0%0-13.9%0-21.5%0-30.4%0-4+0.1%1 1-011.0%1-18.7%1-23.4%1-30.9%1-4+0.2%2 2-012.2%2-19.6%2-23.8%2-31.0%2-4+0.2%3 3-09.0%3-17.1%3-22.8%3-30.7%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-08.3%4+-16.5%4+-22.6%4+-30.7%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 62.9% — — —

Draw 20.4% — — —

Away win 16.7% — — —

Over 2.5 60.7% — — —

Over 3.5 37.5% — — —

BTTS 52.3% — — —

Home O1.5 61.8% — — —

Away O1.5 20.1% — — —

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 55%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.2 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob52.3%

H 63% / xG 2.2-0.8 / O2.5 61% / BTTS 52%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 12.2%

#2 1–1 8.7%

#3 1–0 11.0%

#4 2–1 9.6%

#5 3–0 9.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Douglas Haig2.2

9 de Julio Rafaela0.8

COMBINED 3.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 60.7% · O3.5 PROB 37.5%

Form & verdict PPG

DOUGLAS HAIG · PPG 2.25

9 DE JULIO RAFAELA · PPG 0.75

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +1.42 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Douglas Haig (H) 62.9%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 20.4%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

9 de Julio Rafaela (A) 16.7%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Douglas Haig face 9 de Julio Rafaela in Argentina - Torneo Federal A on Sunday, July 26, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Douglas Haig a 63% chance, the draw 20% and 9 de Julio Rafaela 17%, so Douglas Haig are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.2 for Douglas Haig and 0.8 for 9 de Julio Rafaela (3.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 61% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 52% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Douglas Haig are averaging 2.25 points per game versus 0.75 for 9 de Julio Rafaela.

Douglas Haig vs 9 de Julio Rafaela Prediction— Argentina - Torneo Federal A

Match Preview & Prediction

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