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Mercedes vs Estrella Del Sur Prediction— Argentina - Primera C

Regular Season - 22 ·Friday, July 31, 2026, 21:00

Mercedes

PPG 1.90 · HOME

UPCOMING

Estrella Del Sur

PPG 1.20 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

xG gap +0.58 - moderate Home edge

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-017.0%0-110.2%0-23.0%0-30.6%0-4+0.1%1 1-020.0%1-111.9%1-23.6%1-30.7%1-4+0.1%2 2-011.7%2-17.0%2-22.1%2-30.4%2-4+0.1%3 3-04.6%3-12.7%3-20.8%3-30.2%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-01.7%4+-11.0%4+-20.3%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 50.0% — — —

Draw 28.7% — — —

Away win 21.3% — — —

Over 2.5 37.3% — — —

Over 3.5 19.3% — — —

BTTS 45.4% — — —

Home O1.5 32.6% — — —

Away O1.5 17.4% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 13 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 31%

O2.5 77%

BTTS 69%

Score Hit 77%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 42%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)0.6 BTTS prob45.4%

H 50% / xG 1.2-0.6 / U2.5 37% / NoBTTS 45%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 17.0%

#2 1–0 20.0%

#3 1–1 11.9%

#4 2–0 11.7%

#5 0–1 10.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Mercedes1.2

Estrella Del Sur0.6

COMBINED 1.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 37.3% · O3.5 PROB 19.3%

Form & verdict PPG

MERCEDES · PPG 1.90

ESTRELLA DEL SUR · PPG 1.20

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.58 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Mercedes (H) 50.0%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 28.7%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Estrella Del Sur (A) 21.3%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Mercedes face Estrella Del Sur in Argentina - Primera C on Friday, July 31, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Mercedes a 50% chance, the draw 29% and Estrella Del Sur 21%, so Mercedes are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for Mercedes and 0.6 for Estrella Del Sur (1.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 37% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 45% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Mercedes are averaging 1.90 points per game versus 1.20 for Estrella Del Sur.

Mercedes vs Estrella Del Sur Prediction— Argentina - Primera C

Match Preview & Prediction

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