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Universitario de Vinto vs Guabirá Prediction— Bolivia - Primera División

Apertura - 12 ·Friday, July 31, 2026, 19:00

Universitario de Vinto

PPG 1.40 · HOME

UPCOMING

Guabirá

PPG 0.67 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home Over 1.5

xG gap +1.72 for Home, form 1.40 vs 0.67 - Strong consensus

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.1%0-11.6%0-21.1%0-30.5%0-4+0.2%1 1-03.5%1-14.8%1-23.3%1-31.5%1-4+0.7%2 2-05.4%2-17.5%2-25.2%2-32.4%2-4+1.1%3 3-05.6%3-17.8%3-25.4%3-32.5%3-4+1.2%4+ 4+-09.4%4+-113.0%4+-29.0%4+-34.1%4+-4+1.9%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 62.9% — — —

Draw 16.3% — — —

Away win 20.7% — — —

Over 2.5 72.7% — — —

Over 3.5 52.6% — — —

BTTS 63.5% — — —

Home O1.5 77.1% — — —

Away O1.5 43.7% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 9 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 67%

O2.5 89%

BTTS 56%

Score Hit 44%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

4 – 1 69%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)3.1 xG (away)1.4 BTTS prob63.5%

H 63% / xG 3.1-1.4 / O2.5 73% / BTTS 64%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 3–1 7.8%

#2 2–1 7.5%

#3 4–1 6.0%

#4 3–0 5.6%

#5 1–1 4.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Universitario de Vinto3.1

Guabirá1.4

COMBINED 4.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 72.7% · O3.5 PROB 52.6%

Form & verdict PPG

UNIVERSITARIO DE VINTO · PPG 1.40

GUABIRÁ · PPG 0.67

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

66%

STRONG_HOME

xG gap +1.72 for Home, form 1.40 vs 0.67 - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Universitario de Vinto (H) 62.9%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 16.3%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Guabirá (A) 20.7%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Universitario de Vinto face Guabirá in Bolivia - Primera División on Friday, July 31, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Universitario de Vinto a 63% chance, the draw 16% and Guabirá 21%, so Universitario de Vinto are favoured to win. Expected goals are 3.1 for Universitario de Vinto and 1.4 for Guabirá (4.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 3-1. There is a 73% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 64% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Universitario de Vinto are averaging 1.40 points per game versus 0.67 for Guabirá.

Universitario de Vinto vs Guabirá Prediction— Bolivia - Primera División

Match Preview & Prediction

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