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Tadamon Sour vs Racing Prediction— Lebanon - Premier League

Relegation Quarterfinals - 1 ·Tuesday, July 21, 2026, 13:00

Tadamon Sour

PPG 0.80 · HOME

UPCOMING

Racing

PPG 0.08 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Home slight advantage: POOR (0.80) > Away POOR (0.08)

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-013.2%0-14.8%0-20.9%0-30.1%0-4+0.0%1 1-022.0%1-17.9%1-21.4%1-30.2%1-4+0.0%2 2-018.3%2-16.6%2-21.2%2-30.1%2-4+0.0%3 3-010.1%3-13.7%3-20.7%3-30.1%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-06.1%4+-12.2%4+-20.4%4+-30.0%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 64.8% — — —

Draw 21.5% — — —

Away win 13.7% — — —

Over 2.5 46.8% — — —

Over 3.5 26.7% — — —

BTTS 46.4% — — —

Home O1.5 53.9% — — —

Away O1.5 11.1% — — —

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 45%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.7 xG (away)0.4 BTTS prob46.4%

H 65% / xG 1.7-0.4 / U2.5 47% / NoBTTS 46%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 22.0%

#2 2–0 18.3%

#3 0–0 13.2%

#4 3–0 10.1%

#5 1–1 7.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Tadamon Sour1.7

Racing0.4

COMBINED 2.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 46.8% · O3.5 PROB 26.7%

Form & verdict PPG

TADAMON SOUR · PPG 0.80

RACING · PPG 0.08

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: POOR (0.80) > Away POOR (0.08)

Win probability 1X2

Tadamon Sour (H) 64.8%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 21.5%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Racing (A) 13.7%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Tadamon Sour face Racing in Lebanon - Premier League on Tuesday, July 21, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Tadamon Sour a 65% chance, the draw 22% and Racing 14%, so Tadamon Sour are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for Tadamon Sour and 0.4 for Racing (2.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 47% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 46% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Tadamon Sour are averaging 0.80 points per game versus 0.08 for Racing.