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Verden 04 vs Bersenbruck Prediction— Germany - Oberliga - Niedersachsen

Niedersachsen - 26 ·Sunday, April 19, 2026, 13:00

Verden 04

PPG 1.58 · HOME

4 – 0

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Bersenbruck

PPG 1.73 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 5.2 puts the goal expectation well above the line.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-00.5%0-11.7%0-22.7%0-32.8%0-4+4.8%1 1-01.1%1-13.5%1-25.5%1-35.8%1-4+10.1%2 2-01.2%2-13.6%2-25.7%2-36.0%2-4+10.4%3 3-00.8%3-12.5%3-24.0%3-34.2%3-4+7.2%4+ 4+-00.7%4+-12.1%4+-23.3%4+-33.5%4+-4+6.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 24.1% — — —

Draw 16.3% — — —

Away win 59.6% — — —

Over 2.5 89.3% — — —

Over 3.5 76.6% — — —

BTTS 83.7% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 25 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 48%

O2.5 72%

BTTS 64%

Score Hit 36%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 3 72%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 4-0

xG (home)2.1 xG (away)3.2 BTTS prob83.7%

A 60% / xG 2.1-3.2 / O2.5 89% / BTTS 84%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–3 6.0%

#2 1–3 5.8%

#3 2–2 5.7%

#4 1–2 5.5%

#5 2–4 4.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Verden 042.1

Bersenbruck3.2

COMBINED 5.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 89.3% · O3.5 PROB 76.6%

Form & verdict PPG

VERDEN 04 · PPG 1.58

BERSENBRUCK · PPG 1.73

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home GOOD (1.58), Away GOOD (1.73)

Win probability 1X2

Verden 04 (H) 24.1%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 16.3%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Bersenbruck (A) 59.6%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Verden 04 face Bersenbruck in Germany - Oberliga - Niedersachsen on Sunday, April 19, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Verden 04 a 24% chance, the draw 16% and Bersenbruck 60%, so Bersenbruck are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.1 for Verden 04 and 3.2 for Bersenbruck (5.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-3. There is a 89% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 84% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Verden 04 are averaging 1.58 points per game versus 1.73 for Bersenbruck. This match finished 4-0.

Verden 04 vs Bersenbruck Prediction— Germany - Oberliga - Niedersachsen

Match Preview & Prediction

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