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Aurora vs Oriente P. Prediction— Bolivia - Primera División

Sunday, June 14, 2026, 22:00

Aurora

PPG 2.00 · HOME

UPCOMING

Oriente P.

PPG 0.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home Over 1.5

Model probability 59.1% vs bookmaker-implied 76.9%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.4%0-15.1%0-22.0%0-30.5%0-4+0.1%1 1-012.5%1-19.9%1-23.9%1-31.0%1-4+0.2%2 2-012.3%2-19.7%2-23.8%2-31.0%2-4+0.2%3 3-08.0%3-16.3%3-22.5%3-30.7%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-06.1%4+-14.8%4+-21.9%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 57.6% 71.4% 1.40 -19.4%

Draw 22.4% 21.7% 4.60 +1.8%

Away win 20.0% 16.0% 6.25 +15.0%

Over 2.5 54.4% 72.5% 1.38 -24.9%

Over 3.5 32.5% 51.3% 1.95 -36.6%

BTTS 52.2% 66.7% 1.50 -21.7%

Home O1.5 59.1% 76.9% 1.30 -23.2%

Away O1.5 24.3% 33.3% 3.00 -16.3%

League track record ↗

Based on 12 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 50%

O2.5 75%

BTTS 58%

Score Hit 58%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 40%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.0 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob52.2%

H 58% / xG 2.0-0.8 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 52%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 12.3%

#2 1–1 9.9%

#3 1–0 12.5%

#4 2–1 9.7%

#5 3–0 8.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Aurora2.0

Oriente P.0.8

COMBINED 2.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 54.4% · O3.5 PROB 32.5%

Form & verdict PPG

AURORA · PPG 2.00

ORIENTE P. · PPG 0.00

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

40%

NEUTRAL

No PPG data

Win probability 1X2

Aurora (H) 57.6%

ODDS 1.40 · IMPLIED 71.4% EV -19.4%

Draw 22.4%

ODDS 4.60 · IMPLIED 21.7% EV +1.8%

Oriente P. (A) 20.0%

ODDS 6.25 · IMPLIED 16.0% EV +15.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Aurora face Oriente P. in Bolivia - Primera División on Sunday, June 14, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Aurora a 58% chance, the draw 22% and Oriente P. 20%, so Aurora are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.0 for Aurora and 0.8 for Oriente P. (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 52% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Aurora are averaging 2.00 points per game versus 0.00 for Oriente P.. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +15.0%.

Aurora vs Oriente P. Prediction— Bolivia - Primera División

Match Preview & Prediction

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