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Aurora vs Oriente P. Prediction— Bolivia - Primera División

Bolivia - Primera División · Apertura - 9 · Sunday, June 14, 2026, 22:00

Aurora

PPG 2.00 · HOME

UPCOMING

Oriente P.

PPG 0.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 57.6% vs bookmaker-implied 71.4%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.4%0-15.1%0-22.0%0-30.5%0-4+0.1%1 1-012.5%1-19.9%1-23.9%1-31.0%1-4+0.2%2 2-012.3%2-19.7%2-23.8%2-31.0%2-4+0.2%3 3-08.0%3-16.3%3-22.5%3-30.7%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-06.1%4+-14.8%4+-21.9%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelOddsEV

Home win 57.6% 1.40 -19.4%

Draw 22.4% 4.60 +1.8%

Away win 20.0% 6.25 +15.0%

Over 2.5 54.4% 1.38 -24.9%

Over 3.5 32.5% 1.95 -36.6%

BTTS 52.2% 1.50 -21.7%

Win probability 1X2

Aurora (H) 57.6%

ODDS 1.40 · IMPLIED 71.4% EV -19.4%

Draw 22.4%

ODDS 4.60 · IMPLIED 21.7% EV +1.8%

Oriente P. (A) 20.0%

ODDS 6.25 · IMPLIED 16.0% EV +15.0%

Hunt pick CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 40%HUNT CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.0 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob52.2%

H 58% / xG 2.0-0.8 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 52%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 12.3%

#2 1–1 9.9%

#3 1–0 12.5%

#4 2–1 9.7%

#5 3–0 8.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Aurora2.0

Oriente P.0.8

COMBINED 2.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 54.4% · O3.5 PROB 32.5%

Form & verdict PPG

AURORA · PPG 2.00

ORIENTE P. · PPG 0.00

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

40%

NEUTRAL

No PPG data

Match Preview & Prediction

Aurora face Oriente P. in Bolivia - Primera División on Sunday, June 14, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Aurora a 58% chance, the draw 22% and Oriente P. 20%, so Aurora are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.0 for Aurora and 0.8 for Oriente P. (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 52% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Aurora are averaging 2.00 points per game versus 0.00 for Oriente P.. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +15.0%.

Aurora vs Oriente P. Prediction— Bolivia - Primera División

Match Preview & Prediction

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