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CSA vs São Luiz Prediction— Brazil - Serie D

Round of 16 ·Sunday, July 26, 2026, 19:00

CSA

PPG 2.14 · HOME

UPCOMING

São Luiz

PPG 1.14 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 65.7% vs bookmaker-implied 73.5%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.8%0-14.1%0-21.1%0-30.2%0-4+0.0%1 1-015.8%1-18.3%1-22.2%1-30.4%1-4+0.1%2 2-015.9%2-18.4%2-22.2%2-30.4%2-4+0.1%3 3-010.7%3-15.7%3-21.5%3-30.3%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-08.7%4+-14.6%4+-21.2%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 65.7% 73.5% 1.36 -10.7%

Draw 21.8% 25.0% 4.00 -7.7%

Away win 12.5% 12.5% 8.00 0.0%

Over 2.5 50.0% 48.1% 2.08 +4.0%

Over 3.5 28.7% 26.7% 3.75 +4.6%

BTTS 47.1% 40.0% 2.50 +17.8%

Home O1.5 55.7% 55.6% 1.80 +0.3%

Away O1.5 19.1% 22.2% 4.50 -8.4%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 0 39%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.0 xG (away)0.5 BTTS prob47.1%

H 66% / xG 2.0-0.5 / O2.5 50% / NoBTTS 47%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 15.9%

#2 1–0 15.8%

#3 3–0 10.7%

#4 1–1 8.3%

#5 0–0 7.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

CSA2.0

São Luiz0.5

COMBINED 2.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.0% · O3.5 PROB 28.7%

Form & verdict PPG

CSA · PPG 2.14

SÃO LUIZ · PPG 1.14

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +1.49 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

CSA (H) 65.7%

ODDS 1.36 · IMPLIED 73.5% EV -10.7%

Draw 21.8%

ODDS 4.00 · IMPLIED 25.0% EV -7.7%

São Luiz (A) 12.5%

ODDS 8.00 · IMPLIED 12.5% EV 0.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

CSA face São Luiz in Brazil - Serie D on Sunday, July 26, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives CSA a 66% chance, the draw 22% and São Luiz 13%, so CSA are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.0 for CSA and 0.5 for São Luiz (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 47% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, CSA are averaging 2.14 points per game versus 1.14 for São Luiz. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +27.7%.

CSA vs São Luiz Prediction— Brazil - Serie D

Match Preview & Prediction

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