Today / Brazil - Serie D / Portuguesa vs Uberlandia

Portuguesa vs Uberlandia Prediction— Brazil - Serie D

Round of 16 ·Saturday, July 25, 2026, 19:00

Portuguesa

PPG 2.71 · HOME

UPCOMING

Uberlandia

PPG 2.43 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-015.5%0-110.4%0-23.5%0-30.8%0-4+0.2%1 1-018.5%1-112.4%1-24.2%1-30.9%1-4+0.2%2 2-011.0%2-17.4%2-22.5%2-30.6%2-4+0.1%3 3-04.4%3-12.9%3-21.0%3-30.2%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-01.7%4+-11.1%4+-20.4%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 46.6% 71.4% 1.40 -34.8%

Draw 29.4% 27.0% 3.70 +5.3%

Away win 24.0% 12.5% 8.00 +55.2%

Over 2.5 39.3% 45.5% 2.20 -13.5%

Over 3.5 20.5% 25.0% 4.00 -10.8%

BTTS 48.4% 40.0% 2.50 +21.0%

Home O1.5 35.8% 54.6% 1.83 -34.5%

Away O1.5 20.1% 18.2% 5.50 +6.3%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 35%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)0.7 BTTS prob48.4%

H 47% / xG 1.2-0.7 / U2.5 39% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 15.5%

#2 1–0 18.5%

#3 1–1 12.4%

#4 2–0 11.0%

#5 0–1 10.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Portuguesa1.2

Uberlandia0.7

COMBINED 1.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 39.3% · O3.5 PROB 20.5%

Form & verdict PPG

PORTUGUESA · PPG 2.71

UBERLANDIA · PPG 2.43

✓ SOLID - Moderate edge + strong value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.52 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Portuguesa (H) 46.6%

ODDS 1.40 · IMPLIED 71.4% EV -34.8%

Draw 29.4%

ODDS 3.70 · IMPLIED 27.0% EV +5.3%

Uberlandia (A) 24.0%

ODDS 8.00 · IMPLIED 12.5% EV +55.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Portuguesa face Uberlandia in Brazil - Serie D on Saturday, July 25, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Portuguesa a 47% chance, the draw 29% and Uberlandia 24%, so Portuguesa are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for Portuguesa and 0.7 for Uberlandia (1.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 39% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Portuguesa are averaging 2.71 points per game versus 2.43 for Uberlandia. The best value bet our model finds is A/BTTS, with an expected value of +80.2%.

Portuguesa vs Uberlandia Prediction— Brazil - Serie D

Match Preview & Prediction

More Brazil - Serie D Predictions