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Tucuman Central vs Sarmiento de La Banda Prediction— Argentina - Torneo Federal A

Regular Season - 18 ·Sunday, July 26, 2026, 19:00

Tucuman Central

PPG 2.29 · HOME

UPCOMING

Sarmiento de La Banda

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

xG gap +0.70 - moderate Home edge

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-011.6%0-18.5%0-23.1%0-30.7%0-4+0.2%1 1-016.6%1-112.0%1-24.4%1-31.1%1-4+0.2%2 2-011.8%2-18.6%2-23.1%2-30.8%2-4+0.2%3 3-05.6%3-14.1%3-21.5%3-30.4%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-02.7%4+-12.0%4+-20.7%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 53.3% — — —

Draw 26.6% — — —

Away win 20.2% — — —

Over 2.5 43.6% — — —

Over 3.5 23.0% — — —

BTTS 48.5% — — —

Home O1.5 46.3% — — —

Away O1.5 20.1% — — —

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 37%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)0.7 BTTS prob48.5%

H 53% / xG 1.4-0.7 / U2.5 44% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 16.6%

#2 1–1 12.0%

#3 0–0 11.6%

#4 2–0 11.8%

#5 2–1 8.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Tucuman Central1.4

Sarmiento de La Banda0.7

COMBINED 2.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 43.6% · O3.5 PROB 23.0%

Form & verdict PPG

TUCUMAN CENTRAL · PPG 2.29

SARMIENTO DE LA BANDA · PPG 1.00

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.70 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Tucuman Central (H) 53.3%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 26.6%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Sarmiento de La Banda (A) 20.2%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Tucuman Central face Sarmiento de La Banda in Argentina - Torneo Federal A on Sunday, July 26, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Tucuman Central a 53% chance, the draw 27% and Sarmiento de La Banda 20%, so Tucuman Central are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Tucuman Central and 0.7 for Sarmiento de La Banda (2.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 44% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Tucuman Central are averaging 2.29 points per game versus 1.00 for Sarmiento de La Banda.

Tucuman Central vs Sarmiento de La Banda Prediction— Argentina - Torneo Federal A

Match Preview & Prediction

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