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Sol de Mayo vs Villa Mitre Prediction— Argentina - Torneo Federal A

Regular Season - 18 ·Sunday, July 26, 2026, 18:00

Sol de Mayo

PPG 1.43 · HOME

UPCOMING

Villa Mitre

PPG 0.86 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-031.6%0-117.1%0-24.6%0-30.8%0-4+0.1%1 1-019.3%1-110.4%1-22.8%1-30.5%1-4+0.1%2 2-05.9%2-13.2%2-20.9%2-30.2%2-4+0.0%3 3-01.2%3-10.6%3-20.2%3-30.0%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-00.2%4+-10.1%4+-20.0%4+-30.0%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 37.2% — — —

Draw 36.5% — — —

Away win 26.3% — — —

Over 2.5 33.3% — — —

Over 3.5 14.3% — — —

BTTS 46.4% — — —

Home O1.5 33.3% — — —

Away O1.5 19.1% — — —

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 27%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)0.6 xG (away)0.5 BTTS prob46.4%

H 37% / xG 0.6-0.5 / U2.5 33% / NoBTTS 46%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 31.6%

#2 1–0 19.3%

#3 0–1 17.1%

#4 1–1 10.4%

#5 2–0 5.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Sol de Mayo0.6

Villa Mitre0.5

COMBINED 1.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 33.3% · O3.5 PROB 14.3%

Form & verdict PPG

SOL DE MAYO · PPG 1.43

VILLA MITRE · PPG 0.86

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected | No clear v...

45%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.07, combined xG 1.15 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Sol de Mayo (H) 37.2%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 36.5%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Villa Mitre (A) 26.3%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Sol de Mayo face Villa Mitre in Argentina - Torneo Federal A on Sunday, July 26, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Sol de Mayo a 37% chance, the draw 37% and Villa Mitre 26%, so Sol de Mayo are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.6 for Sol de Mayo and 0.5 for Villa Mitre (1.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 33% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 46% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Sol de Mayo are averaging 1.43 points per game versus 0.86 for Villa Mitre.

Sol de Mayo vs Villa Mitre Prediction— Argentina - Torneo Federal A

Match Preview & Prediction

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