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Sarmiento Resistencia vs Sol de América Prediction— Argentina - Torneo Federal A

Regular Season - 18 ·Sunday, July 26, 2026, 19:00

Sarmiento Resistencia

PPG 1.29 · HOME

UPCOMING

Sol de América

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-014.9%0-114.8%0-27.4%0-32.4%0-4+0.8%1 1-013.6%1-113.5%1-26.7%1-32.2%1-4+0.7%2 2-06.2%2-16.1%2-23.0%2-31.0%2-4+0.3%3 3-01.9%3-11.9%3-20.9%3-30.3%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-00.5%4+-10.5%4+-20.3%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 37.7% — — —

Draw 32.3% — — —

Away win 30.0% — — —

Over 2.5 39.3% — — —

Over 3.5 19.7% — — —

BTTS 48.5% — — —

Home O1.5 33.3% — — —

Away O1.5 29.5% — — —

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 46%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)0.9 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob48.5%

D 32% / xG 0.9-1.0 / U2.5 39% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 14.9%

#2 1–1 13.5%

#3 0–1 14.8%

#4 1–0 13.6%

#5 0–2 7.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Sarmiento Resistencia0.9

Sol de América1.0

COMBINED 1.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 39.3% · O3.5 PROB 19.7%

Form & verdict PPG

SARMIENTO RESISTENCIA · PPG 1.29

SOL DE AMÉRICA · PPG 1.00

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected | No clear v...

45%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap -0.08, combined xG 1.90 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Sarmiento Resistencia (H) 37.7%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 32.3%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Sol de América (A) 30.0%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Sarmiento Resistencia face Sol de América in Argentina - Torneo Federal A on Sunday, July 26, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Sarmiento Resistencia a 38% chance, the draw 32% and Sol de América 30%, so Sarmiento Resistencia are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.9 for Sarmiento Resistencia and 1.0 for Sol de América (1.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 39% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Sarmiento Resistencia are averaging 1.29 points per game versus 1.00 for Sol de América.

Sarmiento Resistencia vs Sol de América Prediction— Argentina - Torneo Federal A

Match Preview & Prediction

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