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San Martin Formosa vs Bartolomé Mitre Prediction— Argentina - Torneo Federal A

Regular Season - 18 ·Sunday, July 26, 2026, 18:30

San Martin Formosa

PPG 2.43 · HOME

UPCOMING

Bartolomé Mitre

PPG 1.14 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-012.5%0-19.7%0-23.8%0-31.0%0-4+0.2%1 1-016.3%1-112.6%1-24.9%1-31.3%1-4+0.3%2 2-010.6%2-18.2%2-23.2%2-30.8%2-4+0.2%3 3-04.6%3-13.6%3-21.4%3-30.4%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-02.0%4+-11.6%4+-20.6%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 49.9% — — —

Draw 26.8% — — —

Away win 23.3% — — —

Over 2.5 43.6% — — —

Over 3.5 23.0% — — —

BTTS 48.5% — — —

Home O1.5 38.5% — — —

Away O1.5 20.1% — — —

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 35%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob48.5%

H 50% / xG 1.3-0.8 / U2.5 44% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.6%

#2 1–0 16.3%

#3 0–0 12.5%

#4 2–0 10.6%

#5 2–1 8.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

San Martin Formosa1.3

Bartolomé Mitre0.8

COMBINED 2.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 43.6% · O3.5 PROB 23.0%

Form & verdict PPG

SAN MARTIN FORMOSA · PPG 2.43

BARTOLOMÉ MITRE · PPG 1.14

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.53 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

San Martin Formosa (H) 49.9%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 26.8%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Bartolomé Mitre (A) 23.3%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

San Martin Formosa face Bartolomé Mitre in Argentina - Torneo Federal A on Sunday, July 26, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives San Martin Formosa a 50% chance, the draw 27% and Bartolomé Mitre 23%, so San Martin Formosa are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for San Martin Formosa and 0.8 for Bartolomé Mitre (2.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 44% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, San Martin Formosa are averaging 2.43 points per game versus 1.14 for Bartolomé Mitre.

San Martin Formosa vs Bartolomé Mitre Prediction— Argentina - Torneo Federal A

Match Preview & Prediction

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