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San Martín Mendoza vs Argentino Monte Maíz Prediction— Argentina - Torneo Federal A

Regular Season - 18 ·Sunday, July 26, 2026, 18:00

San Martín Mendoza

PPG 2.14 · HOME

UPCOMING

Argentino Monte Maíz

PPG 0.86 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-020.0%0-112.0%0-23.6%0-30.7%0-4+0.1%1 1-020.2%1-112.1%1-23.6%1-30.7%1-4+0.1%2 2-010.2%2-16.1%2-21.8%2-30.4%2-4+0.1%3 3-03.4%3-12.0%3-20.6%3-30.1%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-01.1%4+-10.6%4+-20.2%4+-30.0%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 47.2% — — —

Draw 30.4% — — —

Away win 22.4% — — —

Over 2.5 39.3% — — —

Over 3.5 19.7% — — —

BTTS 46.4% — — —

Home O1.5 35.0% — — —

Away O1.5 19.1% — — —

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 35%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.0 xG (away)0.6 BTTS prob46.4%

H 47% / xG 1.0-0.6 / U2.5 39% / NoBTTS 46%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 20.0%

#2 1–0 20.2%

#3 1–1 12.1%

#4 0–1 12.0%

#5 2–0 10.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

San Martín Mendoza1.0

Argentino Monte Maíz0.6

COMBINED 1.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 39.3% · O3.5 PROB 19.7%

Form & verdict PPG

SAN MARTÍN MENDOZA · PPG 2.14

ARGENTINO MONTE MAÍZ · PPG 0.86

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected | No clear v...

45%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.41, combined xG 1.61 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

San Martín Mendoza (H) 47.2%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 30.4%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Argentino Monte Maíz (A) 22.4%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

San Martín Mendoza face Argentino Monte Maíz in Argentina - Torneo Federal A on Sunday, July 26, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives San Martín Mendoza a 47% chance, the draw 30% and Argentino Monte Maíz 22%, so San Martín Mendoza are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.0 for San Martín Mendoza and 0.6 for Argentino Monte Maíz (1.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 39% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 46% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, San Martín Mendoza are averaging 2.14 points per game versus 0.86 for Argentino Monte Maíz.

San Martín Mendoza vs Argentino Monte Maíz Prediction— Argentina - Torneo Federal A

Match Preview & Prediction

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