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Ruch Chorzow vs Wisla Krakow Prediction— Poland - I Liga

Regular Season - 29 ·Sunday, April 19, 2026, 12:30

Ruch Chorzow

PPG 1.86 · HOME

1 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

Wisla Krakow

PPG 1.85 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.3 puts the goal expectation well above the line.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.6%0-18.1%0-29.0%0-36.7%0-4+6.3%1 1-03.9%1-18.8%1-29.8%1-37.3%1-4+6.8%2 2-02.1%2-14.8%2-25.3%2-33.9%2-4+3.7%3 3-00.8%3-11.7%3-21.9%3-31.4%3-4+1.3%4+ 4+-00.3%4+-10.6%4+-20.7%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.5%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 17.3% 33.3% 3.00 -48.1%

Draw 19.4% 30.3% 3.30 -36.0%

Away win 63.2% 48.8% 2.05 +29.6%

Over 2.5 64.3% — — —

Over 3.5 42.3% — — —

BTTS 59.1% 63.7% 1.57 -7.2%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 47 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 53%

O2.5 60%

BTTS 60%

Score Hit 47%

ROI -4.2%

Bet Hit 57%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 58%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-1

xG (home)1.1 xG (away)2.2 BTTS prob59.1%

A 63% / xG 1.1-2.2 / O2.5 64% / BTTS 59%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–2 9.8%

#2 0–2 9.0%

#3 1–1✓ 8.8%

#4 0–1 8.1%

#5 1–3 7.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Ruch Chorzow1.1

Wisla Krakow2.2

COMBINED 3.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 64.3% · O3.5 PROB 42.3%

Form & verdict PPG

RUCH CHORZOW · PPG 1.86

WISLA KRAKOW · PPG 1.85

✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity

70%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home GOOD (1.86), Away GOOD (1.85)

Win probability 1X2

Ruch Chorzow (H) 17.3%

ODDS 3.00 · IMPLIED 33.3% EV -48.1%

Draw 19.4%

ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV -36.0%

Wisla Krakow (A) 63.2%

ODDS 2.05 · IMPLIED 48.8% EV +29.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Ruch Chorzow face Wisla Krakow in Poland - I Liga on Sunday, April 19, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Ruch Chorzow a 17% chance, the draw 19% and Wisla Krakow 63%, so Wisla Krakow are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.1 for Ruch Chorzow and 2.2 for Wisla Krakow (3.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-2. There is a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 59% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Ruch Chorzow are averaging 1.86 points per game versus 1.85 for Wisla Krakow. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +29.6%. This match finished 1-1.

Ruch Chorzow vs Wisla Krakow Prediction— Poland - I Liga

Match Preview & Prediction

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