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Chuncheon vs Ulsan Citizen Prediction— South-Korea - K3 League

Regular Season - 18 ·Sunday, July 26, 2026, 10:00

Chuncheon

PPG 1.30 · HOME

UPCOMING

Ulsan Citizen

PPG 1.14 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

xG gap +0.59 - moderate Home edge

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.2%0-16.2%0-23.6%0-31.4%0-4+0.5%1 1-09.2%1-110.9%1-26.5%1-32.5%1-4+1.0%2 2-08.2%2-19.7%2-25.7%2-32.3%2-4+0.9%3 3-04.8%3-15.7%3-23.4%3-31.3%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-03.2%4+-13.8%4+-22.2%4+-30.9%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 49.3% — — —

Draw 23.8% — — —

Away win 26.9% — — —

Over 2.5 62.2% — — —

Over 3.5 40.0% — — —

BTTS 62.5% — — —

Home O1.5 53.5% — — —

Away O1.5 36.5% — — —

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 56%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.8 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob62.5%

H 49% / xG 1.8-1.2 / O2.5 62% / BTTS 62%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.9%

#2 2–1 9.7%

#3 2–0 8.2%

#4 1–0 9.2%

#5 0–0 5.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Chuncheon1.8

Ulsan Citizen1.2

COMBINED 3.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 62.2% · O3.5 PROB 40.0%

Form & verdict PPG

CHUNCHEON · PPG 1.30

ULSAN CITIZEN · PPG 1.14

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.59 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Chuncheon (H) 49.3%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 23.8%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Ulsan Citizen (A) 26.9%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Chuncheon face Ulsan Citizen in South-Korea - K3 League on Sunday, July 26, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Chuncheon a 49% chance, the draw 24% and Ulsan Citizen 27%, so Chuncheon are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.8 for Chuncheon and 1.2 for Ulsan Citizen (3.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 62% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Chuncheon are averaging 1.30 points per game versus 1.14 for Ulsan Citizen.

Chuncheon vs Ulsan Citizen Prediction— South-Korea - K3 League

Match Preview & Prediction

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