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Yangpyeong vs Busan Transportation Prediction— South-Korea - K3 League

Regular Season - 18 ·Sunday, July 26, 2026, 09:00

Yangpyeong

PPG 1.50 · HOME

UPCOMING

Busan Transportation

PPG 2.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 55.4% vs bookmaker-implied 54.1% — a real, if thin, edge.

+2.5% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.3%0-110.9%0-29.4%0-35.4%0-4+3.4%1 1-06.6%1-111.3%1-29.7%1-35.6%1-4+3.6%2 2-03.4%2-15.8%2-25.0%2-32.9%2-4+1.8%3 3-01.2%3-12.0%3-21.7%3-31.0%3-4+0.6%4+ 4+-00.4%4+-10.7%4+-20.6%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 27.2% 36.4% 2.75 -15.1%

Draw 24.6% 33.3% 3.00 -15.7%

Away win 48.2% 43.5% 2.30 +10.9%

Over 2.5 53.9% 47.6% 2.10 +13.2%

Over 3.5 33.9% 26.5% 3.78 +28.1%

BTTS 55.4% 54.1% 1.85 +2.5%

Home O1.5 35.0% 35.7% 2.80 -2.0%

Away O1.5 49.0% 40.3% 2.48 +21.5%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 36%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.0 xG (away)1.7 BTTS prob55.4%

A 48% / xG 1.0-1.7 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.3%

#2 1–2 9.7%

#3 0–2 9.4%

#4 0–1 10.9%

#5 0–0 6.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Yangpyeong1.0

Busan Transportation1.7

COMBINED 2.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.9% · O3.5 PROB 33.9%

Form & verdict PPG

YANGPYEONG · PPG 1.50

BUSAN TRANSPORTATION · PPG 2.00

⚠ RISKY - Form concerns with home team

65%

DANGER

xG gap -0.69 - moderate Away edge

Win probability 1X2

Yangpyeong (H) 27.2%

ODDS 2.75 · IMPLIED 36.4% EV -15.1%

Draw 24.6%

ODDS 3.00 · IMPLIED 33.3% EV -15.7%

Busan Transportation (A) 48.2%

ODDS 2.30 · IMPLIED 43.5% EV +10.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Yangpyeong face Busan Transportation in South-Korea - K3 League on Sunday, July 26, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Yangpyeong a 27% chance, the draw 25% and Busan Transportation 48%, so Busan Transportation are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.0 for Yangpyeong and 1.7 for Busan Transportation (2.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Yangpyeong are averaging 1.50 points per game versus 2.00 for Busan Transportation. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +28.1%.

Yangpyeong vs Busan Transportation Prediction— South-Korea - K3 League

Match Preview & Prediction

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