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Changwon City vs Jeonbuk Motors II Prediction— South-Korea - K3 League

Regular Season - 18 ·Sunday, July 26, 2026, 10:00

Changwon City

PPG 1.56 · HOME

UPCOMING

Jeonbuk Motors II

PPG 0.33 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 62.0% vs bookmaker-implied 65.4%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.7%0-14.0%0-21.4%0-30.3%0-4+0.1%1 1-012.2%1-18.7%1-23.1%1-30.7%1-4+0.2%2 2-013.2%2-19.4%2-23.3%2-30.8%2-4+0.2%3 3-09.5%3-16.8%3-22.4%3-30.6%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-08.5%4+-16.0%4+-22.2%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 62.0% 65.4% 1.53 -5.1%

Draw 20.6% 27.8% 3.60 -15.5%

Away win 17.4% 20.0% 5.00 -7.8%

Over 2.5 60.7% 55.6% 1.80 +9.3%

Over 3.5 37.5% 34.7% 2.88 +8.0%

BTTS 52.3% 54.6% 1.83 -4.3%

Home O1.5 61.8% 61.3% 1.63 +0.7%

Away O1.5 20.1% 24.7% 4.05 -11.2%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 52%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.2 xG (away)0.7 BTTS prob52.3%

H 62% / xG 2.2-0.7 / O2.5 61% / BTTS 52%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 13.2%

#2 1–0 12.2%

#3 1–1 8.7%

#4 3–0 9.5%

#5 2–1 9.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Changwon City2.2

Jeonbuk Motors II0.7

COMBINED 2.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 60.7% · O3.5 PROB 37.5%

Form & verdict PPG

CHANGWON CITY · PPG 1.56

JEONBUK MOTORS II · PPG 0.33

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +1.45 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Changwon City (H) 62.0%

ODDS 1.53 · IMPLIED 65.4% EV -5.1%

Draw 20.6%

ODDS 3.60 · IMPLIED 27.8% EV -15.5%

Jeonbuk Motors II (A) 17.4%

ODDS 5.00 · IMPLIED 20.0% EV -7.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Changwon City face Jeonbuk Motors II in South-Korea - K3 League on Sunday, July 26, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Changwon City a 62% chance, the draw 21% and Jeonbuk Motors II 17%, so Changwon City are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.2 for Changwon City and 0.7 for Jeonbuk Motors II (2.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 61% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 52% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Changwon City are averaging 1.56 points per game versus 0.33 for Jeonbuk Motors II. The best value bet our model finds is over 2.5 goals, with an expected value of +9.3%.

Changwon City vs Jeonbuk Motors II Prediction— South-Korea - K3 League

Match Preview & Prediction

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