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Gyeongju HNP vs Siheung Citizen Prediction— South-Korea - K3 League

Regular Season - 18 ·Saturday, July 25, 2026, 08:00

Gyeongju HNP

PPG 1.25 · HOME

UPCOMING

Siheung Citizen

PPG 2.75 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

xG gap -0.36 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.2%0-111.7%0-28.4%0-34.0%0-4+2.0%1 1-08.7%1-112.5%1-29.0%1-34.3%1-4+2.1%2 2-04.7%2-16.7%2-24.8%2-32.3%2-4+1.1%3 3-01.7%3-12.4%3-21.7%3-30.8%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-00.6%4+-10.8%4+-20.6%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 29.7% — — —

Draw 26.7% — — —

Away win 43.6% — — —

Over 2.5 50.0% — — —

Over 3.5 28.7% — — —

BTTS 52.3% — — —

Home O1.5 35.0% — — —

Away O1.5 41.9% — — —

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 21%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.1 xG (away)1.4 BTTS prob52.3%

A 44% / xG 1.1-1.4 / O2.5 50% / BTTS 52%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.5%

#2 0–0 8.2%

#3 0–1 11.7%

#4 1–2 9.0%

#5 0–2 8.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Gyeongju HNP1.1

Siheung Citizen1.4

COMBINED 2.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.0% · O3.5 PROB 28.7%

Form & verdict PPG

GYEONGJU HNP · PPG 1.25

SIHEUNG CITIZEN · PPG 2.75

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

xG gap -0.36 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Gyeongju HNP (H) 29.7%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 26.7%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Siheung Citizen (A) 43.6%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Gyeongju HNP face Siheung Citizen in South-Korea - K3 League on Saturday, July 25, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Gyeongju HNP a 30% chance, the draw 27% and Siheung Citizen 44%, so Siheung Citizen are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.1 for Gyeongju HNP and 1.4 for Siheung Citizen (2.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 52% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Gyeongju HNP are averaging 1.25 points per game versus 2.75 for Siheung Citizen.

Gyeongju HNP vs Siheung Citizen Prediction— South-Korea - K3 League

Match Preview & Prediction

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