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Dangjin Citizen vs Mokpo City Prediction— South-Korea - K3 League

Regular Season - 18 ·Saturday, July 25, 2026, 10:00

Dangjin Citizen logo
Dangjin Citizen
PPG 1.57 · HOME
VS
UPCOMING
Mokpo City logo
Mokpo City
PPG 0.88 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home Over 1.5

xG gap +1.23 - moderate Home edge

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.2%0-14.5%0-21.9%0-30.6%0-4+0.1%1 1-010.8%1-19.4%1-24.1%1-31.2%1-4+0.3%2 2-011.3%2-19.8%2-24.3%2-31.2%2-4+0.3%3 3-07.9%3-16.9%3-23.0%3-30.9%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-06.7%4+-15.9%4+-22.5%4+-30.7%4+-4+0.2%
Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV
Home win 58.6%
Draw 21.7%
Away win 19.7%
Over 2.5 60.7%
Over 3.5 37.5%
BTTS 55.4%
Home O1.5 61.8%
Away O1.5 22.8%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 54%CONFIDENCE
xG (home)2.1 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob55.4%

H 59% / xG 2.1-0.9 / O2.5 61% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 11.3%
#2 1–1 9.4%
#3 2–1 9.8%
#4 1–0 10.8%
#5 3–0 7.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Dangjin Citizen2.1
Mokpo City0.9

COMBINED 3.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 60.7% · O3.5 PROB 37.5%

Form & verdict PPG

DANGJIN CITIZEN · PPG 1.57

MOKPO CITY · PPG 0.88

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value
52%
MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +1.23 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Dangjin Citizen (H) 58.6%
ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —
Draw 21.7%
ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —
Mokpo City (A) 19.7%
ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Dangjin Citizen face Mokpo City in South-Korea - K3 League on Saturday, July 25, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Dangjin Citizen a 59% chance, the draw 22% and Mokpo City 20%, so Dangjin Citizen are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.1 for Dangjin Citizen and 0.9 for Mokpo City (3.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 61% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Dangjin Citizen are averaging 1.57 points per game versus 0.88 for Mokpo City.

PredictVantage

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