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Atletico Atlas vs Deportivo Español Prediction— Argentina - Primera C

Regular Season - 21 ·Saturday, July 25, 2026, 18:00

Atletico Atlas

PPG 1.44 · HOME

UPCOMING

Deportivo Español

PPG 1.20 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-017.3%0-114.8%0-26.3%0-31.8%0-4+0.5%1 1-015.6%1-113.3%1-25.7%1-31.6%1-4+0.4%2 2-07.0%2-16.0%2-22.6%2-30.7%2-4+0.2%3 3-02.1%3-11.8%3-20.8%3-30.2%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-00.6%4+-10.5%4+-20.2%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 37.3% 37.0% 2.70 +0.7%

Draw 32.0% 35.7% 2.80 -10.4%

Away win 30.7% 37.0% 2.70 -17.1%

Over 2.5 39.3% 35.1% 2.85 +12.0%

Over 3.5 19.7% 16.7% 6.00 +10.9%

BTTS 48.5% 45.5% 2.20 +6.7%

Home O1.5 33.3% 30.3% 3.30 +9.9%

Away O1.5 20.6% 30.3% 3.30 -19.2%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 43%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)0.9 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob48.5%

D 32% / xG 0.9-0.9 / U2.5 39% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 17.3%

#2 1–1 13.3%

#3 1–0 15.6%

#4 0–1 14.8%

#5 2–0 7.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Atletico Atlas0.9

Deportivo Español0.9

COMBINED 1.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 39.3% · O3.5 PROB 19.7%

Form & verdict PPG

ATLETICO ATLAS · PPG 1.44

DEPORTIVO ESPAÑOL · PPG 1.20

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected

65%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.04, combined xG 1.75 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Atletico Atlas (H) 37.3%

ODDS 2.70 · IMPLIED 37.0% EV +0.7%

Draw 32.0%

ODDS 2.80 · IMPLIED 35.7% EV -10.4%

Deportivo Español (A) 30.7%

ODDS 2.70 · IMPLIED 37.0% EV -17.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Atletico Atlas face Deportivo Español in Argentina - Primera C on Saturday, July 25, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Atletico Atlas a 37% chance, the draw 32% and Deportivo Español 31%, so Atletico Atlas are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.9 for Atletico Atlas and 0.9 for Deportivo Español (1.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 39% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Atletico Atlas are averaging 1.44 points per game versus 1.20 for Deportivo Español. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +18.0%.

Atletico Atlas vs Deportivo Español Prediction— Argentina - Primera C

Match Preview & Prediction

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