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Estrella Del Sur vs Deportivo Paraguayo Prediction— Argentina - Primera C

Regular Season - 21 ·Saturday, July 25, 2026, 18:00

Estrella Del Sur

PPG 1.78 · HOME

UPCOMING

Deportivo Paraguayo

PPG 1.10 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 56.8% vs bookmaker-implied 63.7%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-011.5%0-16.3%0-21.7%0-30.3%0-4+0.0%1 1-018.6%1-110.2%1-22.8%1-30.5%1-4+0.1%2 2-015.0%2-18.2%2-22.2%2-30.4%2-4+0.1%3 3-08.1%3-14.4%3-21.2%3-30.2%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-04.7%4+-12.6%4+-20.7%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 56.8% 63.7% 1.57 -10.8%

Draw 24.7% 29.9% 3.35 -10.3%

Away win 18.5% 16.1% 6.20 +8.8%

Over 2.5 46.8% 38.5% 2.60 +21.7%

Over 3.5 28.4% 22.2% 4.50 +16.7%

BTTS 47.2% 40.8% 2.45 +15.6%

Home O1.5 53.4% 50.0% 2.00 +6.8%

Away O1.5 19.1% 16.7% 6.00 +8.8%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 37%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)0.5 BTTS prob47.2%

H 57% / xG 1.6-0.5 / U2.5 47% / NoBTTS 47%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 18.6%

#2 2–0 15.0%

#3 0–0 11.5%

#4 1–1 10.2%

#5 2–1 8.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Estrella Del Sur1.6

Deportivo Paraguayo0.5

COMBINED 2.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 46.8% · O3.5 PROB 28.4%

Form & verdict PPG

ESTRELLA DEL SUR · PPG 1.78

DEPORTIVO PARAGUAYO · PPG 1.10

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +1.07 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Estrella Del Sur (H) 56.8%

ODDS 1.57 · IMPLIED 63.7% EV -10.8%

Draw 24.7%

ODDS 3.35 · IMPLIED 29.9% EV -10.3%

Deportivo Paraguayo (A) 18.5%

ODDS 6.20 · IMPLIED 16.1% EV +8.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Estrella Del Sur face Deportivo Paraguayo in Argentina - Primera C on Saturday, July 25, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Estrella Del Sur a 57% chance, the draw 25% and Deportivo Paraguayo 19%, so Estrella Del Sur are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Estrella Del Sur and 0.5 for Deportivo Paraguayo (2.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 47% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 47% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Estrella Del Sur are averaging 1.78 points per game versus 1.10 for Deportivo Paraguayo. The best value bet our model finds is over 2.5 goals, with an expected value of +21.7%.

Estrella Del Sur vs Deportivo Paraguayo Prediction— Argentina - Primera C

Match Preview & Prediction

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