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Berazategui vs Mercedes Prediction— Argentina - Primera C

Regular Season - 21 ·Saturday, July 25, 2026, 16:00

Berazategui

PPG 1.50 · HOME

UPCOMING

Mercedes

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-015.0%0-113.1%0-25.7%0-31.7%0-4+0.4%1 1-015.4%1-113.4%1-25.8%1-31.7%1-4+0.4%2 2-07.9%2-16.9%2-23.0%2-30.9%2-4+0.2%3 3-02.7%3-12.3%3-21.0%3-30.3%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-00.9%4+-10.7%4+-20.3%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 38.6% 57.8% 1.73 -33.2%

Draw 31.9% 31.3% 3.20 +2.1%

Away win 29.5% 20.0% 5.00 +28.5%

Over 2.5 43.2% 43.5% 2.30 -0.6%

Over 3.5 23.0% 23.1% 4.33 -0.3%

BTTS 48.5% 47.6% 2.10 +1.8%

Home O1.5 35.0% 48.8% 2.05 -28.2%

Away O1.5 23.3% 22.2% 4.50 +2.9%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 41%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.0 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob48.5%

D 32% / xG 1.0-0.9 / U2.5 43% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 15.0%

#2 1–1 13.4%

#3 1–0 15.4%

#4 0–1 13.1%

#5 2–0 7.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Berazategui1.0

Mercedes0.9

COMBINED 1.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 43.2% · O3.5 PROB 23.0%

Form & verdict PPG

BERAZATEGUI · PPG 1.50

MERCEDES · PPG 1.00

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected

65%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.15, combined xG 1.89 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Berazategui (H) 38.6%

ODDS 1.73 · IMPLIED 57.8% EV -33.2%

Draw 31.9%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV +2.1%

Mercedes (A) 29.5%

ODDS 5.00 · IMPLIED 20.0% EV +28.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Berazategui face Mercedes in Argentina - Primera C on Saturday, July 25, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Berazategui a 39% chance, the draw 32% and Mercedes 30%, so Berazategui are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.0 for Berazategui and 0.9 for Mercedes (1.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 43% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Berazategui are averaging 1.50 points per game versus 1.00 for Mercedes. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +40.3%.

Berazategui vs Mercedes Prediction— Argentina - Primera C

Match Preview & Prediction

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