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Agama vs Hardrock Prediction— Zimbabwe - Premier Soccer League

Regular Season - 24 ·Thursday, July 23, 2026, 13:00

Agama

PPG 1.09 · HOME

UPCOMING

Hardrock

PPG 1.91 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Away

Away momentum: GOOD form (1.91) vs Home AVERAGE (1.09)

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-013.8%0-119.4%0-213.6%0-36.4%0-4+3.1%1 1-07.9%1-111.2%1-27.9%1-33.7%1-4+1.8%2 2-02.3%2-13.2%2-22.3%2-31.1%2-4+0.5%3 3-00.4%3-10.6%3-20.4%3-30.2%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-00.1%4+-10.1%4+-20.1%4+-30.0%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 17.3% — — —

Draw 26.3% — — —

Away win 56.4% — — —

Over 2.5 43.1% — — —

Over 3.5 22.9% — — —

BTTS 46.7% — — —

Home O1.5 33.3% — — —

Away O1.5 40.6% — — —

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

0 – 2 42%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)0.6 xG (away)1.4 BTTS prob46.7%

A 56% / xG 0.6-1.4 / U2.5 43% / NoBTTS 47%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–1 19.4%

#2 0–0 13.8%

#3 0–2 13.6%

#4 1–1 11.2%

#5 1–2 7.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Agama0.6

Hardrock1.4

COMBINED 2.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 43.1% · O3.5 PROB 22.9%

Form & verdict PPG

AGAMA · PPG 1.09

HARDROCK · PPG 1.91

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Away team showing momentum | No clear value

63%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: GOOD form (1.91) vs Home AVERAGE (1.09)

Win probability 1X2

Agama (H) 17.3%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 26.3%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Hardrock (A) 56.4%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Agama face Hardrock in Zimbabwe - Premier Soccer League on Thursday, July 23, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Agama a 17% chance, the draw 26% and Hardrock 56%, so Hardrock are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.6 for Agama and 1.4 for Hardrock (2.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-1. There is a 43% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 47% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Agama are averaging 1.09 points per game versus 1.91 for Hardrock.

Agama vs Hardrock Prediction— Zimbabwe - Premier Soccer League

Match Preview & Prediction

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