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Ferroviaria vs Inter Limeira Prediction— Brazil - Serie C

Matchday 11 ·Sunday, June 21, 2026, 21:30

Ferroviaria

PPG 2.00 · HOME

2 – 0

FULL TIME

Inter Limeira

PPG 2.60 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-017.7%0-115.9%0-27.1%0-32.1%0-4+0.6%1 1-014.8%1-113.2%1-25.9%1-31.8%1-4+0.5%2 2-06.2%2-15.5%2-22.5%2-30.7%2-4+0.2%3 3-01.7%3-11.5%3-20.7%3-30.2%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-00.4%4+-10.4%4+-20.2%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 33.9% 51.3% 1.95 -33.9%

Draw 32.4% 33.9% 2.95 -4.4%

Away win 33.7% 25.3% 3.95 +33.1%

Over 2.5 37.4% 40.0% 2.50 -6.5%

Over 3.5 18.7% 20.0% 5.00 -3.9%

BTTS 48.1% 47.6% 2.10 +1.0%

Home O1.5 32.4% 42.6% 2.35 -23.9%

Away O1.5 27.9% 25.0% 4.00 +7.0%

League track record ↗

Based on 86 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 40%

O2.5 50%

BTTS 51%

Score Hit 56%

ROI -30.1%

Bet Hit 37%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 46%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-0

xG (home)0.8 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob48.1%

D 32% / xG 0.8-0.9 / U2.5 37% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 17.7%

#2 1–1 13.2%

#3 0–1 15.9%

#4 1–0 14.8%

#5 0–2 7.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Ferroviaria0.8

Inter Limeira0.9

COMBINED 1.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 37.4% · O3.5 PROB 18.7%

Form & verdict PPG

FERROVIARIA · PPG 2.00

INTER LIMEIRA · PPG 2.60

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - 🎯 STRONG BET - Away/Overs value opportunity

66%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: EXCELLENT form (2.60) vs Home EXCELLENT (2.00)

Win probability 1X2

Ferroviaria (H) 33.9%

ODDS 1.95 · IMPLIED 51.3% EV -33.9%

Draw 32.4%

ODDS 2.95 · IMPLIED 33.9% EV -4.4%

Inter Limeira (A) 33.7%

ODDS 3.95 · IMPLIED 25.3% EV +33.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Ferroviaria face Inter Limeira in Brazil - Serie C on Sunday, June 21, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Ferroviaria a 34% chance, the draw 32% and Inter Limeira 34%, so Ferroviaria are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.8 for Ferroviaria and 0.9 for Inter Limeira (1.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 37% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Ferroviaria are averaging 2.00 points per game versus 2.60 for Inter Limeira. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +33.1%. This match finished 2-0.

Ferroviaria vs Inter Limeira Prediction— Brazil - Serie C

Match Preview & Prediction

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