Today / Brazil - Serie C / Barra FC vs Amazonas

Barra FC vs Amazonas Prediction— Brazil - Serie C

Regular Season - 11 ·Sunday, June 21, 2026, 21:30

Barra FC

PPG 1.20 · HOME

UPCOMING

Amazonas

PPG 1.50 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-011.1%0-19.8%0-24.4%0-31.3%0-4+0.3%1 1-014.6%1-112.9%1-25.7%1-31.7%1-4+0.4%2 2-09.6%2-18.5%2-23.7%2-31.1%2-4+0.3%3 3-04.2%3-13.7%3-21.6%3-30.5%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-01.8%4+-11.6%4+-20.7%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelOddsEV

Home win 47.4% 1.85 -12.3%

Draw 27.9% 2.95 -10.6%

Away win 24.7% 4.40 +5.2%

Over 2.5 48.4% 2.75 +33.1%

Over 3.5 28.1% 5.50 +32.7%

BTTS 49.5% 2.30 +13.9%

Win probability 1X2

Barra FC (H) 47.4%

ODDS 1.85 · IMPLIED 54.1% EV -12.3%

Draw 27.9%

ODDS 2.95 · IMPLIED 33.9% EV -10.6%

Amazonas (A) 24.7%

ODDS 4.40 · IMPLIED 22.7% EV +5.2%

League track record ↗

Based on 33 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 36%

O2.5 52%

BTTS 64%

Score Hit 70%

ROI -40.4%

Bet Hit 33%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 26%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob49.5%

H 47% / xG 1.3-0.9 / U2.5 48% / NoBTTS 50%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.9%

#2 0–0 11.1%

#3 1–0 14.6%

#4 2–0 9.6%

#5 2–1 8.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Barra FC1.3

Amazonas0.9

COMBINED 2.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 48.4% · O3.5 PROB 28.1%

Form & verdict PPG

BARRA FC · PPG 1.20

AMAZONAS · PPG 1.50

⚠ RISKY - Form concerns with home team

65%

DANGER

Home weakness: AVERAGE (1.20) vs Away GOOD (1.50)

Match Preview & Prediction

Barra FC face Amazonas in Brazil - Serie C on Sunday, June 21, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Barra FC a 47% chance, the draw 28% and Amazonas 25%, so Barra FC are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Barra FC and 0.9 for Amazonas (2.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 48% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 50% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Barra FC are averaging 1.20 points per game versus 1.50 for Amazonas. The best value bet our model finds is over 2.5 goals, with an expected value of +33.1%.

Barra FC vs Amazonas Prediction— Brazil - Serie C

Match Preview & Prediction

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