Today / Brazil - Serie C / Barra FC vs Amazonas

Barra FC vs Amazonas Prediction— Brazil - Serie C

Matchday 11 ·Sunday, June 21, 2026, 21:30

Barra FC

PPG 1.20 · HOME

1 – 1

FULL TIME

Amazonas

PPG 1.50 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-011.1%0-19.8%0-24.4%0-31.3%0-4+0.3%1 1-014.6%1-112.9%1-25.7%1-31.7%1-4+0.4%2 2-09.6%2-18.5%2-23.7%2-31.1%2-4+0.3%3 3-04.2%3-13.7%3-21.6%3-30.5%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-01.8%4+-11.6%4+-20.7%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 47.4% 54.1% 1.85 -12.3%

Draw 27.9% 33.9% 2.95 -10.6%

Away win 24.7% 22.7% 4.40 +5.2%

Over 2.5 48.4% 36.4% 2.75 +33.1%

Over 3.5 28.1% 18.2% 5.50 +32.7%

BTTS 49.5% 43.5% 2.30 +13.9%

Home O1.5 43.0% 41.7% 2.40 +3.2%

Away O1.5 27.9% 21.1% 4.75 +19.5%

League track record ↗

Based on 86 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 40%

O2.5 50%

BTTS 51%

Score Hit 56%

ROI -30.1%

Bet Hit 37%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 26%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-1

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob49.5%

H 47% / xG 1.3-0.9 / U2.5 48% / NoBTTS 50%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1✓ 12.9%

#2 0–0 11.1%

#3 1–0 14.6%

#4 2–0 9.6%

#5 2–1 8.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Barra FC1.3

Amazonas0.9

COMBINED 2.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 48.4% · O3.5 PROB 28.1%

Form & verdict PPG

BARRA FC · PPG 1.20

AMAZONAS · PPG 1.50

⚠ RISKY - Form concerns with home team

65%

DANGER

Home weakness: AVERAGE (1.20) vs Away GOOD (1.50)

Win probability 1X2

Barra FC (H) 47.4%

ODDS 1.85 · IMPLIED 54.1% EV -12.3%

Draw 27.9%

ODDS 2.95 · IMPLIED 33.9% EV -10.6%

Amazonas (A) 24.7%

ODDS 4.40 · IMPLIED 22.7% EV +5.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Barra FC face Amazonas in Brazil - Serie C on Sunday, June 21, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Barra FC a 47% chance, the draw 28% and Amazonas 25%, so Barra FC are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Barra FC and 0.9 for Amazonas (2.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 48% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 50% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Barra FC are averaging 1.20 points per game versus 1.50 for Amazonas. The best value bet our model finds is over 2.5 goals, with an expected value of +33.1%. This match finished 1-1.

Barra FC vs Amazonas Prediction— Brazil - Serie C

Match Preview & Prediction

More Brazil - Serie C Predictions